IRAN: “*IRAN SAYS CURRENTLY NO NEOGTIATIONS WITH THE US: MEHR” BBG

"The Swiss National Bank is lowering the threshold factor for the remuneration of sight deposits of account holders subject to minimum reserve requirements from 15 to 13.5, effective as of 1 August 2026." Remember that he SNB has a tiered reserve remuneration system to facilitate money market activity. What today's announcement effectively means is that more sight deposits are remunerated at a discount to the the SNB policy rate, rather than at the policy rate.

• "The basis for calculating the threshold remains unchanged: for sight deposit account holders subject to minimum reserve requirements, the threshold corresponds to the moving average of the minimum reserve requirements over the preceding three years, multiplied by the applicable threshold factor; the other sight deposit account holders continue to have a fixed threshold"
• "The adjustment of the factor has no impact on the current monetary policy stance."
• Full SNB Statement here: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases/2026/pre_20260622

Downside in ESTR 1y1y has been relatively limited compared to the sharp pullback in oil prices. Cautious ECB speakers have indicated that the impact of Strait of Hormuz disruption between March and July has already been embedded into the inflation outlook, necessitating a “measured adjustment” of policy. For now, this keeps a base case of one more hike this year intact. OIS price 22bps of hikes through September. 

• ESTR 1y1y is currently 2.56%, down from 2.64% on June 11.
• Further dovish repricing may require (i) signs that the growth outlook remains weak despite hopes of a ceasefire agreement (e.g. in tomorrow’s flash PMIs) and/or (ii) evidence of subdued indirect inflation effects (e.g. in next week’s flash HICP data).
• The US and Iran were said to have made “encouraging progress” in talks over the weekend. That said, there is still a high degree of uncertainty here and headline flow remains in focus.
• President Lagarde speaks to the EU Parliament at 1400BST/1500CET today. It will be interesting to see if she echoes comments made by Chief Economist Lane last week, which would further reinforce the case for one more hike. 

• RES 4: $100.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $98.487 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off 
• RES 2: $78.898/89.374 - High May 19 / 13 
• RES 1: $73.410 50-day EMA         
• PRICE: $66.603 @ 08:25 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: $61.007 - Low Mar 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

A bearish trend condition in Silver remains intact and a fresh short-term cycle low on Jun 11 reinforces this theme. This suggests that gains are for now, likely corrective. Attention is on $61.007 next, the Mar 23 low and a bear trigger. A breach of this price point would highlight an important bearish development. Key short-term resistance is $89.374, the May 13 high. Initial firm resistance is $74.410, the 50-day EMA.