MIDEAST: Iran FM Threatens More Strikes; Netanayahu Talks Up Trump Partnership

Johnson Redbook's retail sales index posted a 5.4% Y/Y rise in the week ending May 17, which brought May month-to-date to 5.6% Y/Y (above retailers' 5.4% target).

• The report noted that while midweek sales were slow, there was solid shopping on both weekends (Mother's Day May 11, and picking up again last weekend). "Sales of home improvement and outdoor goods increased, although severe storms and flooding in the central USA disrupted business operations."
• In a rare note of caution, "shoppers are becoming more budget-conscious, and retailers are hopeful that sales will strengthen with the arrival of warmer weather, graduations, and the Memorial Day weekend."
• Nonetheless, a 5.6% Y/Y rise would mark the 4th month in a row of 5+% sales, averaging 5.9% over that period. As it accounts for 80% of the Census Bureau Retail Sales series, the latter looks to remain relatively robust this month despite waning consumer confidence.

German ASWs vs. 3-month Euribor are flat to +0.8bp on the day, with outperformance noted in the long end despite the bear steepening seen on the outright bond curve.

• ASWs tick further away from the multi-week lows registered in early May, with bears unable to force a retest of cycle/all-time lows as of yet.
• It could be that the combination of the recent sell off in spreads has found a bit of a limit, with little in the way of fresh catalysts to promote further cheapening vs. swaps, allowing ASWs to move away from pullback lows in recent sessions.
• The medium-term fundamental outlook still screens bearish for long end spreads, but ongoing macro uncertainty means that volatility should persist.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 07/20 $Benchmark Siemens 3Y +65a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +80a, 7Y +90a, 10Y +100a, 30Y +115a, 40Y +125a
• 07/20 $1.5B Rentenbank 5Y SOFR+42
• 07/20 $Benchmark NatWest 4NC3 SOFR+135a, 6NC5 +135a
• 07/20 $Benchmark McKesson 5Y +85a, 7Y +95a, 10Y +105a
• 07/20 $Benchmark Snam 5Y +135a, 10Y +160a, 30Y +185a
• 07/20 $Benchmark Texas Instruments 5Y +65a, 10Y +85a
• 07/20 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken +5Y SOFR+53
• 07/20 $Benchmark Pricoa 5Y +95a, 10Y +115a
• 07/20 $Benchmark Kenvue Inc 7Y +90a
• 07/20 $Benchmark ADB 5Y SOFR+45
• 07/20 $Benchmark OKB 3Y
• $8.6B Priced Monday