NEW ZEALAND: Inflation Expectations Moderate Further In Q2
Inflation continued to trend in the right direction with RBNZ 2-year business inflation expectations moderating to 2.3% in Q2 from 2.5%, the lowest since Q3 2021. 1-year out declined by more falling to 2.7% from 3.2%, the lowest in three years. Household inflation expectations have been running higher than business ones and Q2 for this survey will be published on May 20. Research by RBNZ has shown that mean 1-year ahead inflation expectations have had the best relationship with inflation. Both businesses and households are signalling that the CPI is heading to the target band.
New Zealand RBNZ core CPI y/y% vs inflation expectations %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
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USDCAD TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3772 High Apr 12
- PRICE: 1.3764 @ 15:52 BST Apr 12
- SUP 1: 1.3576 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3478/20 Low Apr 4 / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 4: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s break higher confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high, has been cleared This paves the way for gains towards 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 1.3478, the Apr 4 low.
MNI: DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'
- DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'
AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6560/6644 50-day EMA / High Apr 9
- PRICE: 0.6467 @ 15:50 BST Apr 12
- SUP 1: 0.6464 Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
AUDUSD remains vulnerable following Wednesday's sell-off and Friday’s weakness strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important short-term technical break. Key resistance is unchanged at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
