EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Production Tracking 1-2 Tenths Above Consensus

Eurozone January industrial production is due for release today, with our tracking estimate pointing to a reading between 0.7% and 0.8% M/M. This is 1-2 tenths above the Bloomberg median of 0.6%, with around half of analysts looking for a 0.5-0.7% M/M print. Our tracking estimate assumes Italian data which is due for release after the EZ print is in-line with consensus.

• We estimate IP excluding Ireland rose around 1.1% M/M recovering some of its 1.9% fall in December. We also estimate an upward revision to the December reading from -1.1% M/M to between -0.7% and -0.6%, though Italy revisions may alter this.
• Looking at the country performance it was quite mixed, with three of the seven largest weighted countries in Eurozone IP recording an increase in IP M/M whilst three printed a fall in IP. The remaining one (Italy) is scheduled to publish results on Friday.
• Note for Italy Industrial production which has a weighting of 15.3% (as of last update) we have assumed an in-line with consensus reading of 1.4% M/M in January given later publication timing. We estimate this contributes 0.20ppts to Eurozone IP. Though analyst estimates are wide ranging from 0.5% and 2.8% - the lower range of the estimate would results in a EZ wide print of around 0.5% M/M, whilst the upper range would boost EZ IP to between 0.9-1.0%.  This is following a notably weak print of -3.1% M/M in December (though the NSA value fell at a softer rate than in Dec 2023 at -17% M/M vs -20% in the prior year).
• Germany is the main upward driver. German IP rose 2.3% M/M reversing its 2.1% decline in December and contributing around 0.8ppts to the Eurozone wide industrial production reading.
• The Netherlands is estimated to contribute 0.04ppts whilst Belgium is estimated to contribute 0.02ppts.
• Moderating the increase was mainly Ireland (once again skewing the value). Irish IP fell 3.9% M/M in January after a solid 8.1% rise in December. We estimate this contributes a negative 0.37ppts to EZ IP in January.
• This was followed by a smaller negative contribution of 0.08ppts each by both France and Spain, with France recording its fifth consecutive sequential fall in IP.
• Note, Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the above country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.