INDONESIA: Bond Wrap
- Indonesia To Sold 2037, 36, 41, 28, 49 Sukuk Bonds yesterday with modest bid to cover ratios of 1-2 times, possibly reflecting indigestion in the new issue market ahead of perceived market volatility.
- Indonesian retailers are optimistic about their sales performance in August, anticipating a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, according to the latest survey conducted by Bank Indonesia (source: Bloomberg).
- Jakarta composite modestly down in trading, bond yields lower across intermediate maturities.
2yr 6.538% (+0.5bp) 5yr 6.498% (-0.5bp) 10yr 6.602% (-2bp) 30yr 6.848%
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C August 12, 2024
Germany, France, Spain, and Finland are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E15.0bln in first round operations, down from E31.7bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will look to sell E2bln of the 3-month Nov 20, 2024 bubill and E2bln of the 9-month May 14, 2025 bubill.
- This afternoon, France will look to issue up to E7.0bln pf the 5/12/26/52-week BTFs: E0.1-0.5bln of the 5-week Sep 18, 2024 BTF, E3.1-3.5bln of the 12-week Nov 6, 2024 BTF, E1.1-1.5bln of the 26-week Feb 12, 2025 BTF and E1.1-1.5bln of the new 52-week Aug 13, 2025 BTF.
- Tomorrow, Spain will come to the market to sell the 3-month Nov 8, 2024 letras and the 9-month May 7, 2025 letras. The size will be confirmed later today.
- Finally also tomorrow, Finland will sell up to a combined E2bln of the 6-month Feb 13, 2025 RFTB and the 9-month May 13, 2025 RFTB.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 154.21 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 151.10 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2
- RES 1: 147.90 High Aug 7
- PRICE: 147.18 @ 06:36 BST Aug 12
- SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY remains bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off has strengthened the trend condition. The move down has paved the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the bear trend remains in an extreme oversold condition, and the latest recovery - a correction - is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 151.10, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 141.70, the Aug 5 low.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 4887.78 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 4794.68 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 4770.00 High Aug 2
- RES 1: 4724.00 High AUg 4
- PRICE: 4714.00 @ 06:13 BST Aug 12
- SUP 1: 4494.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)
A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest climb appears to be a correction. The sell-off between Aug 1 - 5, reinforces the bearish condition. A key support at 4846.00, the Apr 19 low, has been cleared. This highlights a stronger reversal and opens 4478.81 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4887.78, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4720.53, a Fibonacci retracement.
