INDIA: India Sees Potential for More Imports from US
- "INDIA SEES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING IMPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES AMID TRADE TENSIONS, TAX OFFICIAL" - Reuters News
- "TO REVIEW TARIFF SURCHARGE ON CERTAIN ITEMS INCLUDING LUXURY CARS"
- "MINISTRIES INCLUDING THOSE OVERSEEING HEAVY INDUSTRIES, RENEWABLES TO HOLD INDUSTRY CONSULTATIONS FOR REVIEW"
Another example of an APAC country seemingly taking pre-emptive action to avoid the worst of Trump's tariff threats. Recall yesterday from Thailand: "Thailand will increase imports of U.S. ethane by at least 1 million tons, starting from the second quarter of this year, to help reduce its trade surplus with the United States, a Thai official said on Tuesday."
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BONDS: Bund/Schatz Swap related trade
Bund/Schatz Swap related trade:
- DUH5 7.95k at 106.73 (suggest Payer).
- RXH5 1.36k at 13.40 (suggest Receiver).
GERMAN DATA: Small Regions Suggest Some Upside Risk For National CPI
December CPI Y/Y prints for Hesse (2.7% vs 2.0% Nov) and Rhineland-Palatinate (3.3% vs 2.7% Nov) clearly accelerated more than consensus expects for the national-level CPI due today (with the median analyst looking for 2.4% Y/Y after 2.2% in Nov). The Hesse M/M print of +0.7% was also notably higher than the national-level consensus of +0.3%.
- This means that there should be some upside risks here, but as Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate cumulatively only account for 12.6% of the national basket, we can't put too much weight on the apparent beat just yet.
- Also, as the Hesse & R-P statistics agencies both noted some elevated uncertainty with the data on the back of a methodology update, the national agency Destatis might also be less certain on the flash print than usual. Nevertheless, focus lies on that national-level data, scheduled to be released today at 1300GMT/1400CET.
- Final data bringing some more clarity for Hesse and R-P is scheduled for Thursday, alongside releases from a wider set of other states, before the finalised national CPI release on Jan 16.
- Looking at the services prints of the two states already released, developments were mixed - there was some acceleration in Hesse but a lower print than before in Rhineland-Palatinate.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Serv/Comp PMIs, Dur/Cap Goods, Tsy 3Y Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 6-Jan 0915 Fed Gov Cook eco-outlook at law and economics conf (text, Q&A)
- 6-Jan 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (58.5, 58.5)
- 6-Jan 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (56.6, --)
- 6-Jan 1000 Factory Orders (0.2%, -0.4%); ex-trans (0.1%, --)
- 6-Jan 1000 Durable Goods Orders (-1.1%, -0.4%); ex-trans (-0.1%, 0.3%)
- 6-Jan 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.7%, 0.1%)
- 6-Jan 1000 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (0.5%,0.3%)
- 6-Jan 1130 US Tsy $84B 13W and $72B 26W bill auctions
- 6-Jan 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMF5)
