CONSUMER STAPLES: Imperial Brands; Fitch affirms
(IMBLN Baa2/BBB/BBB)
Re. non-combustibles exposure echoes no major change expected; "we expect the contribution of the combustible cigarette market to still represent above 90% of IMB's total revenue by FY28, but the NGP category should contribute around half the group's total growth over the period. At present, NGPs represent 4% of total revenue."
Positively notes;
- regulatory risk lower than peers as combustibles heavy (NGP's like vapes more exposed) and operates in 5 developed markets (UK, US, Germany, Spain, Australia).
- sees it lower beta to US macro as positioned in mid to low price segments
1/3 of revenues from US, has a 11% market share there in cigarettes and production should be local/no tariff exposure.
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USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 151.45 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 150.18/151.30 High Mar 5 / 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.46 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 148.97 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.43 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on Mar 11 strengthens a bearish theme. The move down resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. This opens 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5409.47/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5397.00 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 5284.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8411 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.8369/8342 Low Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and Friday’s bullish engulfing candle pattern signals a resumption of the trend and the end of the recent corrective pullback. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8342, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a continuation higher and a break of 0.8450, the Mar 11 high, would open 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
