ASIA FX: IDR Weaker Again As Local Bonds Plunge, KRW Rebounds

Outside of CNH and a resurgent KRW, USD/Asia pairs have pushed higher today, as firmer oil, higher US Tsy yields and weaker local equities all boost the USD. Oil benchmarks are up over 4.5%, although Brent is still sub $100/bbl, as market assess the fallout from Israel-Iran strikes. US President Trump noted that the strikes don't derail US-Iran peace plans/talks. MYR is off close to 1%, while USD/IDR continues its strong uptrend, last up 0.80%, as local bonds capitulate. 

• USD/CNH is holding lower for the session, last near 6.7875. The USD/CNY fixing was only set a touch higher, and yuan outperformance is typical during periods of heightened risk aversion. Recent highs rest at 6.7920/25, while the 50-day EMA is further north at 6.8170. The CNY basket tracker continues to rise, last around 101.685.
• Spot USD/KRW has plunged, last under 1540, outperforming general equity risk off and higher oil prices. Over the weekend officials met to step up efforts to curb one-sided depreciation pressures. Via BBG: "Rather than simply warning against excessive market moves, Seoul this time unveiled a detailed response plan that includes tighter scrutiny of offshore currency derivatives, inspections targeting suspected market misconduct, and investigations into potentially illegal FX transactions. Then headlines have crossed this afternoon of the National Pension Fund activating FX hedging. We hit lows of 1537.45 before stabilizing. We are still comfortably above all key EMAS, with the 20-day around 1510.
• USD/MYR has surged near 1% to 4.0700. Outside of broader USD supports, fresh local political uncertainty is also weighing from late last week, with PM Anwar's coalition set to contest against each in key state elections. Today's move puts USD/MYR above its 200-day EMA for the first time since 2025.
• USD/IDR has risen strongly, as Indonesia assets continue to struggle. Spot is around 18165/70, up a further 0.80%. Notably today, we have seen a break higher in 10yr INDOGB yields, surging +35bps to 7.22%, see the chart below. Other parts of the yield curve are also up very strongly in yield trends, continuing the recent trend of Indonesian asset underperformance. Local equities continue to falter, down around 2.9%.
• USD/THB is also higher at 32.88, up 0.75%, but is yet to test above 33.00, which marked 2026 highs. USD/PHP is up as well, last near 61.72, which brings us back close to recent cycle highs. 

Fig 1: Indogb 10yr Yield Breaks Higher 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI