A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is holding on to its gains. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA highlighted a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8465, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a possible reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 0.8488.
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JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.