US NATGAS: Henry Hub Spot Price Forecast Raised 1.9% for 2025: EIA STEO
US Henry Hub spot prices for 2025 have been raised by 1.9% to $4.27/MMBtu, according to the EIA in its April Short Term Energy Outlook.
- Moreover, prices in 2026 are seen at $4.60/MMBtu, up from $4.47/MMBtu in the March outlook.
- “Despite a net injection into storage during March, U.S working natural gas inventories ended the withdrawal season (November–March) 4% below the five-year average as cold weather in January and February resulted in more natural gas than average being withdrawn from storage. Consequently, we expect higher natural gas prices this year,” the EIA said.
- US dry natural gas production across 2025 has been revised up 0.1 bcf/d to 105.3 bcf/d.
- Production in 2026 is expected to be 107.1 bcf/d, down 0.4 bcf/d from the March forecast.
- US natural gas consumption for 2025 has been cut by 0.8 bcf/d from March’s forecast to 91.2 bcf/d, while 2026 consumption is at 90.5 bcf/d, down 0.6 bcf/d.
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FED: US TSY 3Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $167 MLN FROM $58.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 3Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $167 MLN FROM $58.000 BLN TOTAL
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: SOFR Continued To Soften Monday
Secured rates softened for a second consecutive session Monday, with SOFR dipping by 1bp again to 4.33%, matching the lowest levels of the month.
- Rates could soften a little further today with cash returning to market due to bill redemptions which should help the downward drift in rates.
- Meanwhile, effective Fed Funds rates were once again unchanged.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.33%, -0.01%, $2505B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32%, -0.01%, $960B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.32%, -0.01%, $931B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $105B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $292B
RIKSBANK: VIEW: JP Morgan No Longer Expect Riksbank To Cut In June
JP Morgan no longer expect the Riksbank to cut rates in June, now forecasting policy rates to remain steady at 2.25% through their forecast horizon. This is JPM's second forecast revision since the Janaury 29 Riksbank decision, after they removed a March cut from their forecast in February in response to the much higher-than-expected January flash CPI data.
- JPM note that "expectations of significant fiscal stimulus combined with recent upside inflation surprises should keep the Riksbank on hold for an extended time".
- Specifically, last week's German/EU fiscal announcements have led to upward Swedish GDP revisions of 0.5%-pt saar in 2H25 and 0.75%-pt in 2026.
- "In Sweden, we apply a 0.4 beta to the growth revision for Germany, higher than the 0.25 average for Euro area countries. This owes to the manufacturing industry being closely tied to Germany. In addition to higher infrastructure, there will be some lift from defense spending although the impact here is likely to be small".
- "Somewhat tempering the beta is the intensification in the trade war, which may hit Sweden harder given the manufacturing sector’s large exposure".
- "While defence expenditure is already set to increase significantly in coming years, we expect more to come. We predict military spending will increase to 2.8% of GDP in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026 (vs. 2.4% for both years previously). We assume fiscal multipliers of 0.3 in 2025 0.6 in 2026".
