US NATGAS: Henry Hub Climbs in Morning Trading – Lower Production on Hurricane

• Treasury futures extend lows after Tsy announces buy- back up to $6B longer dated debt.
• TYZ6 taps 107-03.5 low, -04.5 last, yield +.0403 at 4.8285. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 107-02+ next, a Fibonacci projection.
• Cross-asset update, US$ off lows (BBDXY -.51 to 1186.84), stocks weaker (DJIA -0.72%)

"*US TREASURY TO BUY BACK UP TO $6B IN LONGER-DATED DEBT THU." bbg

• Despite a bounce to 153.70 ahead of the NY crossover, USDJPY has been creeping lower since and finds itself just 30 pips above the overnight low at typing. The relatively benign price action might lead some to believe that downside momentum could dwindle ahead of US inflation data across Thu/Fri, however, with any rallies continuing to be sold, further aggressive moves lower should not be ruled out.
• Daily lows of 152.95 and 152.89 show a very obvious area that could see selling momentum pick up, with support then scant until the year’s worst level of 152.10. Furthermore, there are two additional support levels down there which could easily come into play ahead of the US figures; 151.94, the 50.0% retracement of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jul 23 ‘26 bull cycle, and 151.63, the 1.00 projection of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 - Sep 2 price swing.
• The fundamental shift for the yen has been well covered in recent sessions, however, Bessent’s goading overnight remarks just adds to the ‘catching the falling knife’ narrative at present, and could bolster bearish USDJPY momentum should the buyback announcement surprise at all.
• JP Morgan stated they are fairly committed to the bullish JPY view but want to be able to sell an uptick to 158-160 should it be seen again. The durability of the BOJ hiking and the potential domestic rebalancing of Japanese pension funds is an important theme for JPY, but they are cognizant that it may take several months to develop.