US STOCKS: Hedge Fund Managers Remain Bearish

Early G10 FX moves are skewed in favor of the USD, but aggregate moves are modest. The USD BBDXY index was last above 1232, up close to 0.20% versus end Monday levels in the US. Intra-session lows in the BBDXY index from Monday at 1227.25 aren't too far away and the 20-day EMA is back at 1261.18, +2% above current spot levels. 

• JPY, EUR and CHF have lost around 0.25-0.35% at this stage, with USD/JPY near 143.50  in latest dealings. USD/CHF was close to 0.8180, EUR near 1.1320/25.
• Japan FinMin Kato plans to meet with US Tsy Secretary Bessent as part of an upcoming trip to Washington (IMF and World Bank Spring meetings). FX is expected to be discussed, while broader trade talks between the two countries will also be in focus. Headlines have crossed though that Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa trip the US has not been scheduled yet.
• AUD and NZD are outperforming at the margins, but are little changed versus the USD. AUD/USD last near 0.6330, NZD clos eot 0.5885.
• US equity futures opened lower, but have pared losses, now back in the -0.10-0.15% region, likely helping AUD and NZD at the margins. . US yields have ticked up but gains are less than 1bps at this stage.
• We have heard from Tsy Secretary Bessent, who downplayed recent bond market volatility, stating that there wasn't evidence of sovereign selling.
• US Fed President Bostic discussed uncertainty around the outlook and that it would be imprudent to move policy boldly at the moment. He added tariffs will push prices up and mean the timing of reaching the inflation target will be pushed out (via RTRS).
• Focus remains on the tariff outlook, with Trump hinting at potential auto relief on Monday, but also noting pharmaceutical tariffs were coming soon.
• Coming up in around 30mins is the RBA minutes from the April policy meeting. 

Constant outflows continue to be the thematic we see as we watch the equity flows across the major markets. 

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$188m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1,584m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,666m. The 5-day average is -$317m, the 20-day average is -$323m and the 100-day average of -$152m.
• Taiwan: Had outflows of -$642m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$1,402m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$18,358. The 5-day average is --$280m, the 20-day average of -$247m and the 100-day average of -$249m.
• India: Had outflows of -$518m as of the 9th, with total outflows of -$2,815m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$16,476m.  The 5-day average is -$563m, the 20-day average of -$44m and the 100-day average of -$150m.
• Indonesia: Had outflows of -$138m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$488m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$2,318m.  The 5-day average is -$98m, the 20-day average -$50m and the 100-day average -$37m
• Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$34m as of the 11th, outflows totaling -$250m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,396m. The 5-day average is -$50m, the 20-day average of -$25m the 100-day average of -$18m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$18m as of yesterday, totaling -$222m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,796m. The 5-day average is -$44m, the 20-day average of -$60m the 100-day average of -$40m.
• Philippines: Saw inflows of +$3m as of yesterday, with net outflows of -$62m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$290m. The 5-day average is -$12m, the 20-day average of -$3m the 100-day average of -$6m.

The AUD buying over the last few days seems to have slowed, topping out in both the London and New York session at levels around 0.6340. US equities continued to bounce with risk stabilising. The CFTC data shows Asset managers were active last week paring back their shorts aggressively. A problem that has not gone away though is the US-China relationship and how further tensions could impact the Yuan. The AUD will continue to be seen as a proxy to China so it is worth keeping an eye on how the PBOC intends to let this play out.

• EUR/AUD - Overnight range 1.7910 - 1.8087, further consolidation as we approach a long weekend. Asia opens under pressure breaking the overnight lows and is currently dealing around 1.7900. 
• GBP/AUD - Overnight range 2.0766 - 2.0920, GBP/AUD continues to consolidate having found some support back toward 2.06 as the GBP played catch up to the move lower in the USD.
• AUD/JPY - Overnight range 89.91 - 90.78, everyone's favourite way to express risk aversion in FX finds dips shallow as the pair consolidates. The 92/94 area is very strong resistance but the weekly shadow and rejection of the pivotal 85.00 area will make shorts nervous. While markets remain in turmoil and uncertainty high the JPY crosses should continue to find sellers on bounces.
• AUD/NZD -  Overnight range 1.0741 - 1.0779, the cross is dealing in Asia around 1.0760 with very little direction. Resistance towards 1.0900/1.1000 should be tough first up, look for some consolidation after stale longs have been stopped out last week. Note on Thursday we get both NZ CPI and Australian jobs data. 

Fig 1: AUD/JPY Spot