ASIA STOCKS: Heavy Outflows In Asian As Tech & Semiconductor Stocks Get Hammered
Feb-25 23:52
A heavy day of outflows on Tuesday, as semiconductor and tech names take another beating. The SOX was again down 2.30% overnight, so expect the outflows to continue. Taiwan saw a $1.5b outflow, while India has now seen over $12b in outflows ytd.
- South Korea: Recorded -$247m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$663m. YTD flows remain negative at -$2.16b. The 5-day average is -$133m, worse than the 20-day average of -$110m and the 100-day average of -$104m.
- Taiwan: Posted -$1.56b in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$2.24b. YTD flows remain negative at -$4.17b. The 5-day average is -$448m, significantly worse than the 20-day average of -$101m and the 100-day average of -$87m.
- India: Recorded -$660m in outflows Monday, bringing the 5-day total to -$760m. YTD outflows remain heavy at -$12.2b. The 5-day average is -$152m, better than the 20-day average of -$253m and the 100-day average of -$248m.
- Indonesia: Posted -$100m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$474m. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.03b. The 5-day average is -$95m, worse than the 20-day average of -$42m and the 100-day average of -$34m.
- Thailand: Saw -$100m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$215m. YTD flows remain negative at -$367m. The 5-day average is -$43m, worse than the 20-day average of -$5m and the 100-day average of -$19m.
- Malaysia: Registered -$62m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$185m. YTD flows are negative at -$1.03b. The 5-day average is -$37m, worse than the 20-day average of -$26m and the 100-day average of -$28m.
- Philippines: Recorded -$10m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$47m. YTD flows remain negative at -$196m. The 5-day average is -$9m, worse than the 20-day average of -$4m and the 100-day average of -$6m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.
Jan-26 23:46
- Thailand to Sell 40 Billion Thb of 182-Days Bills
- MAS to Sell S$15.9 Billion 25-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$22.5 Billion 83-Day Bills
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 90D Bills (PH0000058463)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 181D Bills (PH0000058935)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 363D Bills (PH0000059818)
- Bank of Korea to Sell 1 Trillion Won 91-Day Bonds
JGB TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
Jan-26 23:45
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11
- PRICE: 140.70 @ 15:52 GMT Jan 24
- SUP 1: 140.00 - Round number support
- SUP 2: 139.38 - 2.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.87- 3.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes the 140.00 psychological handle next. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.
JGBS: Futures Up-Ticked Overnight Friday, Trump Tariff News On Sunday In Play
Jan-26 23:24
In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed with an uptick, +1 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished mildly stronger.
- US stock futures have re-opened lower ahead of key earnings week, with the S&P 500 down ~0.50% and the Nasdaq down ~1%.
- “In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. Oil, gold, coffee and flowers top the list of exports, according to Colombia’s tax authorities.” (per BBG)
- On Friday, the S&P Global US composite PMI surprisingly fell in the January flash, showing its lowest since April, after 55.4 in December, which marked a 32-month high. Inflationary pressures saw a four-month high which helped limit the dovish reaction from the headline services miss.
- Meanwhile, U.Mich long-run inflation expectations were trimmed in the final January release from what had been a particularly sharp increase to the highest since 2008. 3.2% is still elevated though, having twice in the past three months exceeded what had been a typical 2.9-3.1% range since mid-2021.
- Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
- Today, the local calendar will see Coincident/Leading Index alongside an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-15.5 YR.
