US STOCKS: Heavy Idiosyncratic SpaceX Declines, Strong Semiconductor Increases

• RES 4: 111-03+ High May 7
• RES 3: 110-29   50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 110-00+/110-10+ Low May 4 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109-24   Low Mar 27 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-20+ @ 17:12 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 108-18   Low May 19 & 1.382 proj of the Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 price swing
• SUP 2: 108-00   Round number support 
• SUP 3: 107-27+ 1.764 proj of the Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-13+ 2.000 proj of the Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 price swing

A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger at 109-24, the Mar 27 low, and the 109-00 handle, have been cleared. A continuation lower would open the 108-18, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 110-10+.

• "[RTRS] KATAYAMA: READY TO TAKE DECISIVE ACTION ON FOREX"
• Relatively limited impact on the yen here, with USDJPY dipping around 20 pips to 158.95, but not as reactive compared to the earlier Bessent comments. We pointed out that there appears to be a coordinated effort between US and Japan officials at the G7 summit to revive the FX rhetoric, and the market still appears sensitive to these types of headlines.
• Katayama was on the wires yesterday, reiterating they are seeing speculative moves in the financial market and that volatility in oil prices is affecting the FX market.
• While Katayama declined to comment on outright intervention, she said the MoF will address FX appropriately and she told the G7 that they need to take action to correct global imbalances. A reminder that the MoF’s chief currency diplomat used language such as "This is our final evacuation warning to markets," before official intervention was seen.
• There have been a couple of follow up headlines from Ueda, stating the BOJ need to closely monitor signs on upward price pressure. When asked about BOJ tapering plans, Ueda said they will assess market situation, functionality.

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Apr 8 
• RES 3: 1.3869 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31  - May 1 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3808 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31  - May 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3774 High May 19
• PRICE: 1.3758 @ 17:18 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.3643 Low May 8 
• SUP 2: 1.3550 Low May 1 
• SUP 3: 1.3526 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and key support

A bullish corrective cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded through 1.3713, the 50-day EMA. This highlights a stronger short-term reversal and opens 1.3808 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bears, a reversal would mark the end of the correction and pave the way for a move towards 1.3550, the Mar 9 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would open 1.3482, the Jan 30 low.