STIR: Hawkish Fed Pricing Shift Mostly Driven By Crude & ECB
Sep-10 12:51
Ongoing upside in energy prices and spillover from the reaction to the ECB's latest decision drive m...
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: Norges Offshore's Chief Economist talks to MNI about the [...]
Aug-11 12:50
Norges Offshore's Chief Economist talks to MNI about the oil investment outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'26 5Y Buy
Aug-11 12:41
- +5,000 FVU6 106-07.5, post time offer at 0824:24ET, DV01 $209,250.
- The 5Y contract trades 106-08 last (+1)
NORGES BANK: Certificate Volumes Fully Ramped Up, SEB Think NIBOR/OIS Looks Low
Aug-11 12:40
Norges Bank’s certificates programme has ramped up through the summer, with outstanding volumes now close to the 2026 target levels. Volumes are currently NOK73bln, and will fluctuate between NOK70-79bln through the remainder of the year - see Chart 4 below.
- Certificates have been introduced as another instrument (alongside F-deposits) to absorb excess liquidity from the banking system, helping Norges Bank maintain its NOK30-40bln target range for total liquidity.
- Based on Norges Bank’s current forecast (as of yesterday), certificates are expected to pull down the troughs in structural liquidity to near zero later this year – see Chart 1. This may necessitate usage of F-loans to supply liquidity to the banking system in order to push total liquidity back into the target range.
- The current forecast for structural liquidity in the autumn (September – November) is a little lower than the forecasts made earlier this year - see Chart 2.
- Over the next 3 months, structural liquidity (ex-certificates) is expected to average just over NOK70bln.
- SEB believe the current level of 3M Nibor-OIS (just over 18bps as of Aug 10 close) is “slightly compressed given the low level of expected liquidity the next 3 months”. They “still think there’s a potential for renewed increases in the spread in September and October, driven by lower structural liquidity and its effect on the FX-OIS basis.”
