US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-31 High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 112-25+ High Dec 30 / 31
- RES 1: 112-22 High Jan 7
- PRICE: 112-14 @ 11:18 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 111-29 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
Despite a recovery this week in Treasuries, a bear threat remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low and bear trigger. A break of it would resume the bear cycle. Note too that a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart continues to highlight a bearish threat. Scope is seen for a move towards 111-19, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T resistance is 112-31, Dec 18 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Wkly ADP, Nov NFP, S&P Flash PMIs, 6W Bills
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/16 0815 ADP weekly NER Pulse (4.75k prior)
- 12/16 0830 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / November (50k est)
- 12/16 0830 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3% est), YoY (3.6% est)
- 12/16 0830 Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.2%, 0.1%)
- 12/16 0830 New York Fed Services (-21.7, --)
- 12/16 0855 Redbook Retail Sales (5.7% prior)
- 12/16 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI (52.2, 52.1)
- 12/16 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (54.1, 54.0)
- 12/16 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (54.2, 53.9)
- 12/16 1000 Business Inventories (0.0%, 0.1%)
- 12/16 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W Bill auction
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 113-09 76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-27+ High Dec 5
- RES 1: 112-20/23 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 112-10 @ 11:09 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 111-29 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, currently at 112-20, remains intact. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and signal scope for an extension towards 111-19, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a clear breach of 112-23, the Dec 12 high would strengthen a short-term bull cycle.
SOFR: Net Long Setting Dominated In Futures On Monday
OI data points to net long setting dominating in SOFR futures on Monday, with only limited, isolated instances of net short cover seen as contracts ticked higher on the day.
| 15-Dec-25 | 12-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,299,510 | 1,296,569 | +2,941 | Whites | +4,277 |
SFRZ5 | 1,569,979 | 1,575,061 | -5,082 | Reds | +53,885 |
SFRH6 | 1,390,362 | 1,385,834 | +4,528 | Greens | +50,805 |
SFRM6 | 1,117,924 | 1,116,034 | +1,890 | Blues | +29,110 |
SFRU6 | 1,184,180 | 1,181,534 | +2,646 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,146,221 | 1,126,261 | +19,960 |
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SFRH7 | 887,420 | 854,900 | +32,520 |
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SFRM7 | 766,542 | 767,783 | -1,241 |
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SFRU7 | 832,506 | 816,721 | +15,785 |
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SFRZ7 | 841,487 | 830,534 | +10,953 |
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SFRH8 | 478,724 | 459,804 | +18,920 |
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SFRM8 | 416,681 | 411,534 | +5,147 |
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SFRU8 | 384,614 | 389,172 | -4,558 |
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SFRZ8 | 323,557 | 293,990 | +29,567 |
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SFRH9 | 196,101 | 190,702 | +5,399 |
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SFRM9 | 207,932 | 209,230 | -1,298 |
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