US: Govt Shutdown Risk Remains High As Schumer And Thune Dig In
Sep-12 2025 15:24
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Punchbowl News that he believes Democrats have “made the decision to force a government shutdown”, with less than 20 days until the spending deadline.
- Thune said, “I think they see it as politically advantageous to have a shutdown. I think their base is clamoring for that. They want a fight with the Trump administration. But they don’t have a good reason to do it. And I don’t intend to give them a good reason to do it.”
- Punchbowl notes, “Democratic leaders — namely Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have signaled that they will vote against a clean short-term government funding package unless Republicans agree to attach health care policy to the bill.
- “Democrats have mentioned extending enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits or rolling back elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill as a price for their votes to keep the government open.”
- Thune said he is open to discussing an extension of the Obamacare credits, but ruled out including any such a measure on a short-term funding patch, “not on a seven-week CR, no,” he said.
- Politico reports, “Republican leaders are eyeing a House vote on a stopgap spending bill next week that extends government funding through Nov. 20 — up to the Friday before Thanksgiving.”
Figure 1: Government Shutdown by October 1
Source: Polymarket
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Aug-13 2025 15:20
- EUR/USD: Aug15 $1.1590-10(E1.3bln); Aug18 $1.1560(E1.1bln); Aug19 $1.1620-25(E1.7bln)
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US: Trump To Make Announcement At Kennedy Center Shortly
Aug-13 2025 15:16
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to make an announcement at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC. LIVESTREAM The event will be Trump's public appearance since National Guard troops deployed across DC this morning.
- Trump is expected to announce the first Kennedy Center Honors recipients since he fired Democratic members of the board and took over as chairman in February. He also may speak on other market-relevant issues, with particular market interest in his assessment of a recently concluded call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders.
SECURITY: Call With Trump Made Progress On Ukraine Security Guarantees - Starmer
Aug-13 2025 15:15
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated, ahead of a virtual meeting of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ of Ukraine backers, that the group has “military plans ready that could used, if there is a ceasefire [in Ukraine].”
- Starmer’s comments come after an emergency call with US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European leaders, and security officials this morning, which appears to have delivered some progress on European priorities for Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
- Starmer said, echoing other European leaders' post-call comments, that “talks about ceasefire have to sit alongside credible security guarantee [for Ukraine].” Starmer added that, “we made real progress on security guarantees in call with Trump earlier,” addressing concerns in European capitals that Trump might look to strike an unfavourable deal with Putin that exchanges occupied territory for a ceasefire.
- Starmer continued: “We stand ready to increase pressure on Russian economy through sanctions and other measures as needed”.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV this morning that sanctions on Russia "can go up" or "can be loosened" depending on the outcome of the Trump-Putin summit.
- Bessent said that European states need to be prepared to join harsher secondary sanctions and tariffs: “It’s put up or shut up time. We put secondary tariffs on the Indians for buying Russian oil. And I could see if things don’t go well, then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up.”
