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US DATA: Core PCE Tracking In 0.25-0.30% Area
Analyst estimates for August core PCE picked up again after Friday's CPI data. Prior to the release, an early median of analysts had seen core PCE at 0.24-0.25% M/M, similar to 0.25% in July; it had been around 0.21-0.22% pre-PPI; consensus now appears to be clustered in the high 0.20s.
- Barclays: 0.25% (was 0.22% pre-CPI, 0.23% pre-PPI)
- Goldman Sachs: 0.26% (0.24% pre-CPI, was 00.22% pre-PPI)
- Nomura: 0.278% (0.245% pre-CPI, was 0.205% pre-PPI).
- BofA: 0.30% (was 0.26% pre-CPI, 0.24% pre-PPI)
- TD: 0.32% (0.24% pre-CPI, was 0.18% pre-PPI)
- Mizuho: 0.3% (under old methodology and 0.4% under new methodology)
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13
- RES 3: 1.4129 High Jul 28
- RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5
- RES 1: 1.3917/3940 50-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 1.3872 @ 16:32 BST Sep 11
- SUP 1: 1.3732 Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3672 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 1.3620 Low May 7
The trend in USDCAD remains bearish. The reversal on Sep 2 reinforces a bear theme and the move down leaves a key near-term resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3917, intact. A clear break of this average is required to strengthen any short-term bull theme and this would signal scope for a stronger retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bear leg. For bears, attention is on key near-term support at 1.3732, the Aug 21 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 0.7330 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 0.7310 1.00 proj of the Mar 30 - May 6 - Jun 30 price swing
- RES 2: 0.7278 High May 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.7238 High Sep 09
- PRICE: 0.7173 @ 16:31 BST Sep 11
- SUP 1: 0.7157/50 20-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.7101 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.7023 Low Aug 6 and 7
- SUP 4: 0.6922 Low Jul 29
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point north and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. This week’s cycle high reinforces current bullish trend conditions and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the bull leg would open 0.7278, the May 6 high and a key resistance. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA at 0.7101. First support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 0.7157 (pierced).
