ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
Jun-18 21:38
* South Korea to Sell 1 Trillion Won 1-Year Bonds * Malaysia to Sell MYR5 Bn2031 Bonds * India to Se...
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ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
May-19 21:37
| 1500BST | 2200HKT | 0000AEST | China 1-Year Loan Prime Rate |
| 1500BST | 2200HKT | 0000AEST | China 5-Year Loan Prime Rate |
| 0500BST | 1200HKT | 1400AEST | Malaysia Exports YoY APRIL |
| 0500BST | 1200HKT | 1400AEST | Malaysia Imports YoY APRIL |
| 0500BST | 1200HKT | 1400AEST | Malaysia Trade Balance MYR APRIL |
| 0820BST | 1520HKT | 1720AEST | BI-Rate |
| 0900BST | 1600HKT | 1800AEST | Taiwan Export Orders YoY APRIL |
| 0900BST | 1600HKT | 1820AEST | Taiwan Current Account Balance 1Q |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
US TSYS: Yields at Cycle Highs Even After Trump Pauses Iran Attack Plan
May-19 19:33
- Rates scaled off early overnight highs as markets evaluated risk sentiment the day after Gulf allies asked Pres Trump to called off planned attack on Iran. Treasury yields have since risen to new cycle highs Tuesday (30Y tapped 5.1953% high - mid-2007 levels; 10Y tapped 4.6853% highest since January 2025).
- Early selling accelerated following reports reports of "explosions heard in Qeshm Island, cause unknown" Reuters, while the US Senate expected to hold 8th Iran War powers vote this afternoon.
- Markets remain wary of ongoing US/Iran war rhetoric: Tenuous Iranian reports that the Israelis had launched the drone strikes on UAE rather than Iran themselves (naturally, that report not repeated in western or Israeli media) as well as latest headlines that NATO could step in to assure passage of ships through Hormuz if the Strait is still closed in July
- Contributing to the late risk-off moves afte the WSJ reported the "US SEIZED IRAN-LINKED OIL TANKER IN THE INDIAN OCEAN" .. "MEDIATORS SEE LITTLE PROGRESS IN IRAN-US TALKS .. CITES REGIONAL MEDIATORS, US OFFICIALS ON IRAN TALKS" WSJ.
- TYM6 currently -9.5 at 108-23 vs. 108-18 low (Low May 19 & 1.382 Fibonacci proj of the Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 price swing). Heavy volumes: over 3.1M partially tied to quarterly futures roll to Sep contract, and massive Block sales over 120,000 TYM contract.
- Projected rate pricing extends hawkish move vs. late Monday lvls (*): Jun'26 at -1.0bp (0.0bp), Jul'26 at +2.4bp (+1.9bp), Sep'26 at +7.8bp (+5.1bp), Oct'26 at +11.9bp (+8.9bp), Dec'26 +20.0bp (+15.5bp). Jan 2027 nearly pricing in first 25bp rate hike.
- LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: April FOMC Minutes Focus
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
May-19 19:30
- RES 4: 0.7358 1.764 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - 5 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7355 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
- RES 2: 0.7300 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.7223/78 High May 15 / 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.7097 @ 17:05 BST May 19
- SUP 1: 0.7080 Low May 19
- SUP 2: 0.7056 50.0% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6986 Low Apr 13
- SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7
The latest pullback in AUDUSD is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. However, today’s sell-off has delivered a print below the 50-day EMA, at 0.7112. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.7056, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.7278, the May 6 high.
