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CROSS ASSET: Currencies Bounce As Pause In Strikes Holds Over The Weekend
The USD has pulled back from Friday Night highs as the pause in the Middle-East bombing has held over the weekend. There has been some reports this could be because the US is running into missile shortages, though Trump pushed back on this: "TRUMP SAYS US HAS FAR MORE MUNITIONS THAN IT NEEDS: WSJ." The initial move has seen Currencies bounce, lets see how risk trades when it opens but it seems the market is looking to try and start the week on a positive footing.
- {AUDUSD Curncy} - 0.7003, +0.34%
- {NZD Curncy} - 0.5803, +0.17%
- {EURUSD Curncy} - 1.1395, +0.22%
USDCAD TECHS: Support Intact
- RES 4: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
- RES 3: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4190 High Jul 9
- PRICE: 1.4097 @ 20:42 BST Jul 24
- SUP 1: 1.4026/4003 50-day EMA / Low Jul 20
- SUP 2: 1.3981 38.2% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
- SUP 4: 1.3899 50.0% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish and the bear cycle since Jun 24 is considered corrective. Attention is on the next important support at 1.4026, the 50-day EMA. The average has been pierced, however, it remains intact and the latest recovery is encouraging for bulls. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 1.4248, the Jun 24, 25 and 30 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.7088 High Jun 15
- RES 2: 0.7071 50.0% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.7027 High Jul 21
- PRICE: 0.6982 @ 20:38 BST Jul 24
- SUP 1: 0.6962 Low Jul 23
- SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
- SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle
AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bear cycle remains intact and - for now - the recent climb is considered corrective. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.7008. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger short-term bounce and signal scope for a continued retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6865, the Jun 30 low. A breach of it would resume the downtrend.
