FED: Gov Cook Reiterates She's Prepared To Hike, But Sees A Disinflationary Path
In an Aug 5 speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm, Fed Gov Cook...
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
- RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4208 @ 20:56 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 1.4150 Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 1.4110 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3966 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3
USDCAD remains bullish. A recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. Note that the trend remains in overbought territory. A stronger corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. On the downside, the first important support lies at 1.4110, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
- RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
- RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6975/0.7037 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 0.6932 @ 08:18 BST Jul 6
- SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: 0.6860 Low Apr 2
- SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6927. A clear channel breakout would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is 0.7088, the Jun 15 high.
JGB TECHS: (U6) Downside Momentum Intact
- RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
- RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21
- RES 1: 128.42/128.56 - High Jun 15 / 50-dma (cont)
- PRICE: 127.06 @ 20:35 BST Jul 06
- SUP 1: 126.85 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 126.35/126.27 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low may 20
- SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
A bearish theme in JGB futures remains intact. The latest move down suggests a recent corrective cycle is over. A continuation lower would expose 126.27, the May 20, where a break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a possible short-term reversal and highlight a potential break of the 50-dma - at 128.56.
