US: GOP Senator Curtis Pledges To Protect Filibuster

Bloomberg carries comments from U.S. President Trump "noting it’s all going well in Iran talks"… “denuclearisation of Iran is moving along well”…”good meeting with Iran”.

• Elsewhere, he praises falling oil prices and the rising equity market.

US$ STIRs look through the softer-than-expected ADP employment report with the mixed messaging under the surface of the release and usual questions surrounding the short-term correlation with NFPs limiting market appetite to trade off the print.

• SOFR futures flat to -7.5, in line with pre-release levels, while FOMC-dated OIS shows ~38bp of tightening (circa 1.5x 25bp hikes) through year-end.
• A reminder that the recent trend in labor market reports has been solid to strong, one ADP employment release will not signal an end of that theme, at least in isolation.
• Also, Fed Chair Warsh was much more hawkish than most expected following his first decision in post, increasing scrutiny of the inflation side of the mandate.

The Chicago Fed's final estimate for June's unemployment rate is 4.36% (prelim estimate was 4.33%), per the bank staff's Labor Market Indicators report.

• The actual BLS reading was 4.30% in May (and the Chicago Fed's final estimate for May's unemployment rate was 4.34%).
• The slight estimated increase is attributed to a small increase in layoffs and a small decrease in hiring.
• If the Chicago Fed is correct, it would mark an upside surprise. Analyst consensus is firmly for a rounded 4.3% rate to hold again in June, with slight downward skew (some primary dealers see a 4.2% rate but none see above 4.3%).