GOLD: Gold's Declines Resume as Bearish Bias Remains

US bond futures were weaker in the Asia trading day, with the downward trend growing into the afternoon.  The US 10-Yr is down -03+ at 112-10, having hovered near to where it opened for much of the morning.  TYH6 was near to the 100-day EMA of 112-14+ at the US close given gains, but has fallen back today with the losses.  

Cash is weak with yields +1 to +2.5bps higher across the curve.  

• The 2-Yr is up +1.4bps at 3.467%
• The 5-Yr is up +1.6bps at 3.722%
• The 10-Yr is up +1.8bps at 4.181% and remains towards the top end of the range over the last month of 4.11% - 4.19%
• The 30-Yr is up +2.4bps at 4.874%

From a data perspective, the focus ADP employment later in the week with tonight's data sidelined.  

Tonight the focus for the bond market will be a US$75bn 6-week bill auction.

A strong overnight lead in from the US and ongoing support for tech names were the key themes that saw equity markets higher in much of Asia today.  Key names like TSMC were up +1.2% and Softbank up 2% in the tech space, whilst key Korean names fell today.  Chinese tech stocks continue to receive attention given their valuations have lagged other regional peers as investors look to profit on the run up in Korean tech names.   Investors throughout the region have seemingly brushed aside the rising geopolitical risks with yet another strong day across major bourses.  

• The NIKKEI led the charge today with gains of +1.05% to reach 52,390 and approaching the October high of 52,411.
• The major China bourses are all up today with offshore outperforming.  The Hang Seng is up +1.7%, CSI 300 up +1.1%, Shanghai up +1.1% and Shenzhen up +0.8%.
• Korea's KOSPI was up yet again with gains of 1% today and over 6% year to date already on the AI / tech euphoria.  The KOSPI is now deep into overbought territory on the 14-day relative strength index, having traded below it for the last part of 2025.  
• SE Asia's major bourses were mixed again with the FTSE Malay KLCI down by -0.2%, SE Thai down -0.25% and the Jakarta Composite up +0.3%.  
• India's NIFTY 50 continues to do very little given domestic strategists continue to describe it as fully valued as it has opened modestly down today at 26,240 following yesterday's losses of -0.3%

Crude is slightly lower today after rising almost 2% on Monday in the wake of the weekend’s news of the US ousting of Venezuela’s Maduro. The development has added more uncertainty to the oil market. WTI is off the intraday low at $57.89/bbl at $58.11 to be down 0.4% today. Brent is down 0.2% to $61.63/bbl. The USD index is 0.1% lower. 

• Headlines on Venezuela continued today with President Trump saying that the US may subsidise oil companies’ investment in the country and that using its oil reserves will bring prices down. Oil prices are currently low enough to discourage investment in US shale and so subsidies are likely to be necessary for capex in Venezuela, as well as assurances of political stability.
• Opposition leader Machado said that she would make Venezuela the US’ energy hub but that she hasn’t spoken to Trump since 10 October. The WSJ reported that the CIA advised that it was best to allow the current regime to remain but Trump said that elections will be held at the right time.
• The market continues to focus on the ongoing excess supply problem and inventory data will be monitored. US industry-based figures are out late on Tuesday. The trend is also reflected in Saudi Arabia cutting prices again to Asia for February.
• Later the Fed’s Barkin and Miran speak. US final December S&P Global services/composite PMIs print as well as euro area/UK services/composite PMIs and Spanish/German/French preliminary December CPIs.