COMMODITIES: Gold Rises to $4,625/oz, Extends Weekly Advance to 5.85%
* The softer dollar narrative accelerated this week as markets continue to digest Treasury Secreta...
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IRAN: IRAN'S IRGC NAVY: WE WARN AGAINST USING ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN THE STRAIT
IRAN'S IRGC NAVY: WE WARN AGAINST USING ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - [RTRS]
FED: Warsh Press Conference To Go Ahead As Usual Next Week
The Federal Reserve has confirmed in a media advisory that there will indeed be a post-meeting Fed press conference with Chair Warsh next week at 2:30pm ET as usual.
- There had been some uncertainty about whether we would get a presser at every meeting given Warsh's apparent skepticism on their usefulness, saying in his Senate confirmation in April: "if you ask me my true personal opinion right now, Fed chairs and other central bankers around the FOMC, they speak quite frequently. There is no lack of transparency. But I would say this, I think truth-seeking is more important than repetition. Everyone has a press conference. One wants to deliver some important news."
ECB: Macro Since Last Meeting - Wage Tracking: No Sign Of Second Round Effects
Stable Negotiated Wage Growth In Latest Tracker Update
- The ECB wage tracker update (link) was consistent with Lagarde's press conference comments:
- "ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to end-May 2026; forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at end-December 2026"
- "Forward-looking information remains unrevised and indicates stable negotiated wage growth at around 2.6% by end-2026"
- "ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026"
3mma Indeed Wage Tracker Remains Below 2025 Average Rate
The Indeed posted jobs wage tracker was 2.76% Y/Y in June, after 2.80% in May and 2.06% in April. It pushes the 3mma Y/Y rate up to 2.54% (vs 2.31% prior). Although this metric has ticked up from recent lows, it remains below the 2025 average of 2.62%.
- Posted wages were broadly steady in Germany (2.95% Y/Y vs 2.97% prior; 22.6k observations) but accelerated from a low rate in France (1.84% Y/Y vs 1.18% prior; 58.2k observations).
- Italian wages (16k observations) were 2.55% Y/Y (Vs 2.53% prior) while Spain (just 3k observations) slipped back to 3.30% Y/Y (vs 4.65% in May, 3.14% in April).
- More forward-looking wage signals will be available next week, with the SAFE survey of small businesses due on Monday and the CTS (Corporate Telephone Survey) due Friday.
