RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

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• Labour market data is still incredibly important - particularly we think for Governor Bailey's view as to whether he rules out voting for a Q4 cut or not. We look at the wider MPC implications for the data.
• We look at the mechanics of the private regular pay release and conclude that a surprise to the 4.5%Y/Y consensus print for the 3-months to August is unlikely - but would be significant.
• We also look through the wider release.

The rally in gilts has stalled over the past couple of hours, with the bid in Bunds also slowing.

• UK headline flow has been limited since typically hawkish comments from BoE’s Greene.
• Gilt futures traded as high as 91.39, but bulls haven’t been able to get close to a test of more meaningful resistance at 91.82, contract last +11 at 91.27.
• Yields ~1bp lower across the curve.
• SONIA futures also back from highs, last flat to +3.5, with BoE-dated OIS pricing ~5.5bp of easing through year-end.
• Tomorrow’s labour market report headlines this week’s UK calendar.
• This will be the final labour market report the MPC sees before its November decision, as well as the final labour market input into the Bank’s MPR forecasts & the OBR’s Budget forecasts.
• Overall, the report is expected to show ongoing building of labour market slack, as opposed to a labour market that is falling off a cliff (more on that imminently).
• Still, a soft release could trigger a relatively meaningful dovish market reaction, given the limited degree of Q4 rate cuts priced at present.
• Note that the upcoming week also sees a number of MPC speakers speak, with the focus very much on comments from Governor Bailey (Tuesday), who is the apparent swing voter when it comes to the next MPC decision.

"PDMA announces that the Bond auction scheduled for October 15, 2025 will not take place."