RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Nov-12 14:02
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF and GFS models for the next seven days as of Wednesday afternoon.
- SpotRenewables and the German GFS model forecast similar wind generation levels over 16-17 November and over 19-21 November. Meanwhile, SpotRenewables and the ECMWF model see a similar forecast over 14-17 November.
- The largest deviation is noted when comparing the ECMWF model and SpotRenewables over 20-21 November at between 18.8-22.3GW, with large deviations between GFS and SpotRenewables on 15 November at 3.8GW.
Despite these differences, all three models forecast wind output to be volatile over 13-17 November.
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UK DATA: MNI UK Labour Market Preview
Oct-13 14:00
- Labour market data is still incredibly important - particularly we think for Governor Bailey's view as to whether he rules out voting for a Q4 cut or not. We look at the wider MPC implications for the data.
- We look at the mechanics of the private regular pay release and conclude that a surprise to the 4.5%Y/Y consensus print for the 3-months to August is unlikely - but would be significant.
- We also look through the wider release.
GILTS: Off Highs, Labour Market Data Eyed
Oct-13 13:58
The rally in gilts has stalled over the past couple of hours, with the bid in Bunds also slowing.
- UK headline flow has been limited since typically hawkish comments from BoE’s Greene.
- Gilt futures traded as high as 91.39, but bulls haven’t been able to get close to a test of more meaningful resistance at 91.82, contract last +11 at 91.27.
- Yields ~1bp lower across the curve.
- SONIA futures also back from highs, last flat to +3.5, with BoE-dated OIS pricing ~5.5bp of easing through year-end.
- Tomorrow’s labour market report headlines this week’s UK calendar.
- This will be the final labour market report the MPC sees before its November decision, as well as the final labour market input into the Bank’s MPR forecasts & the OBR’s Budget forecasts.
- Overall, the report is expected to show ongoing building of labour market slack, as opposed to a labour market that is falling off a cliff (more on that imminently).
- Still, a soft release could trigger a relatively meaningful dovish market reaction, given the limited degree of Q4 rate cuts priced at present.
- Note that the upcoming week also sees a number of MPC speakers speak, with the focus very much on comments from Governor Bailey (Tuesday), who is the apparent swing voter when it comes to the next MPC decision.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Nov-25 | 3.957 | -1.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.912 | -5.6 |
Feb-26 | 3.802 | -16.6 |
Mar-26 | 3.765 | -20.3 |
Apr-26 | 3.680 | -28.7 |
Jun-26 | 3.650 | -31.8 |
Jul-26 | 3.596 | -37.2 |
Sep-26 | 3.579 | -38.9 |
GREECE AUCTION PREVIEW: Auction Cancellation
Oct-13 13:55
"PDMA announces that the Bond auction scheduled for October 15, 2025 will not take place."
