POWER: German Afternoon Renewable Forecast

Aug-14 14:54

See the latest German renewables forecast for base-load hours for the next seven days from this afternoon, including the midday change. German wind will be at only 4-2% load factors on 19-20 August, which could raise prices significantly from the weekend amid a rise in demand from typically low weekend consumption coupled with lower wind.


German: Wind for 15-22 August:

  • 15 August: 5.15GW (unchanged),
  • 16 August: 6.28GW (unchanged),
  • 17 August: 1.20GW (unchanged),
  • 18 August: 3.15GW (+370MW),
  • 19 August: 2.28GW (+289MW),
  • 20 August: 1.08GW (unchanged),
  • 21 August: 4.82GW (unchanged)
  • 22 August: 13.97GW


German: Solar for 15-22 August:

  • 15 August: 13.38GW (+452MW),
  • 16 August: 12.29GW (unchanged),
  • 17 August: 10.19GW (-116MW),
  • 18 August: 7.19GW (unchanged),
  • 19 August: 7.12GW (unchanged,
  • 20 August: 8.94GW (-101MW),
  • 21 August: 8.32GW (unchanged)
  • 22 August: 7.44GW

Historical bullets

STIR: BLOCK: Sep'24 SOFR Midcurve Call Condor

Jul-15 14:54
  • +5,000 0QU4 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 7.0 vs. 96.285/0.05% at 1040:16

US: Trump To Announce VP Pick Today

Jul-15 14:50

Brett Baier of Fox News claims that former president and soon-to-be Republican nominee Donald Trump has confirmed that he will announce his pick for vice presidential running mate later on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI. The VP nominee, whoever they are, is set to address the convention on Wednesday 17 July.

  • Political betting markets data from Smarkets shows North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as the narrow favourite among bettors, ahead of US Senator from Ohio JD Vance. Burgum is given a 40% implied probability of getting the nod compared to 32.8% for Vance. Former HUD Sec Ben Carson is in third place with a 10% implied probability, just ahead of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
  • The vice presidential pick has historically been utilised to appeal to a geographic or demographic area where the presidential nominee is weaker. However, with Trump's pick the key factor is likely to be loyalty to his president, espcially following his vocal displeasure with former VP Mike Pence amid the events of 6 Jan 2021.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Republican VP Nominee, %

Source: Smarkets

STIR: BLOCKs: Midcurve SOFR Call

Jul-15 14:43
  • 5,000 2QV4 96.37/96.87/97.37 call flys, 13.0 net ref 96.51 at 1038:02ET
  • 5,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/96.00/96.25 call condors, 6.5 ref 95.725 at 1036ET