POWER: German Afternoon Renewable Forecast

Jul-10 14:34

See the latest German renewables forecast for base-load hours for the next seven days from this afternoon, including the midday change. German wind is still anticipated to be low on 12 July, which could life power prices further from the previous day – but over the weekend wind has been revised up by around 3.2GW – possibly weighing down prices coupled with typically low weekend demand.


German: Wind for 11-18 July:

  • 11 July: 4.42GW (+115MW),
  • 12 July: 4.77GW (+315MW),
  • 13 July: 9.7GW (+2.49GW),
  • 14 July: 8.97GW (+817MW),
  • 15 July: 3.70GW (+451MW),
  • 16 July 13.70GW (unchanged),
  • 17 July: 10.00GW (unchanged)
  • 18 July: 4.23GW


German: Solar for 11-18 July:

  • 11 July: 13.53GW (unchanged),
  • 12 July: 8.27GW (-155MW),
  • 13 July: 9.11GW (-162MW),
  • 14 July: 13.95GW (-246MW),
  • 15 July: 14.33GW (-251MW),
  • 16 July 12.12GW (-324MW),
  • 17 July: 12.31GW (-343MW)
  • 18 July: 12.64GW

Historical bullets

BELGIUM: PM Resigns, Flemish Nationalists & Liberals Set To Lead Gov't Talks

Jun-10 14:32

The 9 June legislative elections delivered such a blow to Belgian PM Alexander De Croo's Dutch-speaking liberal Open VLD party that he stated he would resign once a new majority coalition has been formed. The big winners of the election were the Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), which retained its plurality, and the liberal centre-right Reformist Movement (MR), which overtook the centre-left Socialists as the largest Francophone party. 

  • The seven-party coalition led by De Croo retained its majority by the narrowest of margins, with 76 seats in the 150-member chamber. However, the scale of losses for the Francophone Socialist Party, De Croo's Open VLD, and both Dutch and French-speaking green parties means reforming the group as-is could prove difficult. 
  • While N-VA has sat as part of the federal gov't before, it has never done so as the largest party. N-VA leader Bart De Wever is in pole position to become PM. 
  • Unlike the far-right separatist Vlaams Belang - which scored it its best-ever result, but still underperformed polling - N-VA does not support unilateral separation of Flanders from Wallonia. Instead, it backs the shifting of many responsibilities of the federal gov't to the regional gov'ts of Flanders, Wallonia, and Brussels.
  • MR head Georges-Louis Bouchez has said he could envisage working with the N-VA. While the two parties differ on policies with regards to state competencies, both are economically conservative and favour efforts to bolster state finances in the face of a widening budget deficit.  

EGB OPTIONS: Bund call fly

Jun-10 14:25

RXQ4 131/132.5/134c fly bought for 8.5 in 1k.

EQUITIES: Estoxx put spread

Jun-10 14:13

SX5E (21st June) 4950/4925ps, bought for 6.5 in 7.5k.