NATGAS: Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rises

Front-month TTF has recouped earlier losses to trade higher on the day, but within yesterday’s range. Weather patterns remain a key focus for the European market, coupled with small disruptions to Norwegian supply.

• TTF JAN 25 up 1.4% at 45.5€/MWh
• Cold temperatures in much of western Europe and the Nordics this week will give way to milder and windier conditions arriving over the weekend and into next week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are 334.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows an unplanned capacity reduction at Asgard of 11.6mcm/d due to compressor failure extended until Dec. 16.
• European gas storage is down to 82.05% full on Dec. 8, according to GIE.
• The quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days was 4.62m tons as of Dec. 8 having risen over 5m tons at times in November.
• Asian LNG prices could drop to $12/mmbtu in Q1 2025 amid excess supply and a milder winter, Bloomberg Intelligence said.
• The end of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine should boost LNG deliveries to Continental NWE, Platts said.
• Bulgaria’s Bulgartransgaz won’t allow gas transit through its infrastructure without due payments but so far, the operator has received all due transit fees, according to Bulgaria’s energy minister.
• Associated gas production in the Permian continued to grow strongly in 2024, with the region’s total dry gas output soaring by 10% and set to reach a record high of over 185 bcm, according to the IEA’s Greg Molnar.
• Europe’s ability to compete for global LNG supplies will be key in navigating the ongoing energy crisis, as global demand to maintain growth over the next 5-10 years, according to SEFE, cited by Platts.