NATGAS: Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Pulls Back
Jul-03 15:34
Front month TTF has pulled back today with bearish fundamentals, a downward revision in temperatures for NW Europe next week while supply risks appear reduced.
- TTF AUG 24 down 3% at 32.69€/MWh
- TTF Q3 24 up 2.1% at 35.05€/MWh
- Temperatures in NW Europe remain cool this week but are expected to gradually recover back above normal from early next week.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 334.4mcm/d.
- Total European stores are up to 77.62% full on July 1 according to GIE.
- Ukraine is discussing the transit of natural gas from Azerbaijan to the EU to maintain its role as a transit country and help EU energy security, President Zelenskiy said.
- Underground natural gas storage in Ukraine has reached 9.5bcm as of July 3, according to Naftogaz CEO Oleskiy Chernyshov.
- Russia is ready to continue gas flows to Europe via Ukraine after the end of current transit agreement in December, Deputy PM Alexander Novak told Interfax.
- LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased 0.97% w/w to 2.09m tons in the week to June 30.
- LNG spot charter rates in the Atlantic basin have continued to strengthen since May, facing a late June rally.
- LNG futures traded volumes in H1 2024 rose year-on-year, Platts said.
- Russian pipe natural gas and LNG supply to Europe was again greater than US LNG arrivals in Jun-24, according to ICIS figures by 0.24bcm.
- The TTF price forecast for 2024 has been raised by 9% from the April forecast to €33.16/MWh due to supply risks, according to UBS cited by Montel.
- MNI Gas Weekly: Prices Slip Back as Supply Concerns Ease: Full piece here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65094/MNI%20Gas%20Weekly%20-%20%20Prices%20Ease%20Back%20as%20Supply%20Concerns%20Ease.pdf
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.250%(ALLOT 63.18%)
Jun-03 15:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.250%(ALLOT 63.18%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 39.85% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.27% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 52.88% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.74
US TSYS: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.155%(ALLOT 15.22%)
Jun-03 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.155%(ALLOT 15.22%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.76% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 9.07% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.17% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.95
EGBS: Off Intraday Highs After Rallying Alongside USTs
Jun-03 15:30
{EU} EGBS: Off Intraday Highs After Rallying Alongside USTs
Core/semi-core EGBs are off intraday highs after rallying alongside USTs following today’s US survey data and the sell-off in oil futures.
- The US ISM manufacturing survey saw a weaker than expected headline reading and a lower-than-expected prices paid component.
- Taken alongside the >3% fall in Brent crude futures today, Bunds trade +60 ticks at 129.94, after reaching an intraday high of 130.16.
- While natural gas futures are still over 5% higher today (following supply outages triggered by an abrupt halt to Norwegian gas flow), the retrace from intraday highs will have also eased pressure on EGBs.
- German and French cash yields are 6 to 8.5bps lower today, with the belly of the curve outperforming.
- 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds have moved away from tightest levels, with European equity futures now trading on the defensive.
- Tomorrow’s data calendar includes unemployment data from Spain and Germany, alongside issuance from Austria and Germany (who come to the market with both a conventional Schatz auction and a syndicated tap of the 2053 Green Bund).
- Our ECB preview was released today. See here.
