NORWAY: May Manufacturing IP Solid, Primary Focus On Delayed May CPI-ATE Reading
Jul-13 08:58
Norwegian manufacturing industrial production rose 0.7% M/M in May, helping 3m/3m growth up to an 11-month high of 1.5% (vs 0.5% prior). Sequential growth was seen in both petroleum-related and non-petroleum related manufacturing industries, with the latter seeing 3m/3m growth recover to 1.0% (vs 0.2% in April, 0.9% in March).
Headline IP fell 1.0% M/M, and 1.3% 3m/3m (vs -0.4% prior), owing to a 7.2% M/M fall in crude extraction.
Services production – which was released last week on schedule – saw 1.0% M/M growth in May, with 3m/3m growth rising to 3.1% (vs 2.5% prior). Sequential growth was seen across major categories.
Norwegian market participants will be hoping that May CPI-ATE is released this week. Technical issues at the stats office prevented release last Friday. Headline inflation was significantly below consensus and Norges Bank forecasts at 2.7% Y/Y, with analysts highlighting energy and food components as downside contributors.
Analyst estimates we have seen place CPI-ATE at 2.8-3.0% Y/Y, which would be well below the 3.3% June MPR forecast. However, details remain important with focus on the extent to which this outturn was driven by volatile items or more underlying components.