JGBS: Futures Stronger Overnight After US Tsys Reverse Direction
May-29 23:18
In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed stronger, +36 compared to settlement levels, after solid gains from US tsys.
- The initial reaction to Wednesday's court ruling that blocked implementation of most of the White House's tariffs faded as markets assessed whether the legal decision would have a lasting effect, and indeed, in late afternoon trade an appeals court allowed the tariffs to remain in effect at least temporarily.
- US tsys got a boost from soft data, including downward revisions to Q1 consumption in GDP and surprisingly weak jobless claims data.
- Bloomberg - " The key short- and long-end tenor JGBs and CGBs could offer higher yields vs. their US Treasury counterpart after hedging local-currency exposure back into dollars. These could be destinations for dollar investors as the "Sell America" theme continues. In particular, Asian life-insurance companies' pensions invest in long-duration assets for liability hedging and both JGBs and CGBs could offer tenors of up to 40 and 50 years, respectively."
- "Japanese life insurers have cut protection for their foreign assets against a stronger yen to a 14-year low, indicating subdued expectations of a sustained yen rally." (BBG)
- Today, the local calendar will see Jobless Rate, Job-To-Applicant Ratio, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts and Retail Sales data alongside 2-year supply.
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BONDS: NZGBS: Little Changed, Jolts Weak, Trump 100-Day Remarks
Apr-29 23:06
In local morning trade, NZGBs are little changed after US tsys finished near midday bests Tuesday. US curves mildly steeper amid decent short end support all day (conditional steepeners via options, Block buying SOFR White packs) as Trump officials reported progress in tariff negotiations without much hard facts.
- President Trump is speaking in the White House in the first 100 days—details to come.
- The JOLTS report saw a second month with lower-than-expected job openings, and this time by a greater extent in March. However, layoffs fell to their lowest since June and quit rates surprisingly increased.
- US consumer confidence dropped for a 5th consecutive month in April following the November peak per the Conference Board's survey, with the Composite to 86.0 (88.0 expected, 93.9 prior upwardly revised from 92.9) - the lowest since May 2020.
- Focus now turns to Wednesday's ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.
- Swap rates are unchanged.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. 26ps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 80bps by November 2025.
- Today, the local calendar will see ANZ Business Confidence.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.
GOLD: Dollar Up and Gold Down
Apr-29 22:57
- The push pull of the USD was in full effect for gold overnight as a stronger dollar saw gold soften.
- As market expectations around tariffs now easing permeated through investor thinking the dollar had a better night which makes gold’s purchase price more expensive
- Gold closed in the US session down by -0.79% at USD3,317.41, off the highs of earlier in the month of $3,423.98
- The Thai Central Bank meets today and according to the BOT governor at a ceremony yesterday Thailand needs to brace for a ‘storm’ from the trade war and has increased their gold holdings accordingly.
- Gold ETF’s have experienced six straight days of outflows according to BBG.
- Gold remains one of the best performers year to date up 27% and the recent softening in prices appears likely driven by profit taking than a fundamental change in the outlook for bullion.
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
Apr-29 22:49
- Thailand to Sell THB7bn of 2072 Bonds
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB20bn of 181-Days FRNs
- Philippines to Sell 30.0 Billion 5-Year Bonds
- India to Sell 50 Billion Rupees 182-Day Bills
- India to Sell 90 Billion Rupees 91-Day Bills
- India to Sell 50 Billion Rupees 364-Day Bills
