US STOCKS: Further Gains On Tempering Of Immediate Trade War Concerns
- Cash S&P 500 has been closed today for MLK Day but e-mini S&P has seen further solid gains on the prospect of no tariffs arriving on day one of the second Trump administration.
- ESH5 closed early at 6055.25 (+21.75 points) for a 0.4% gain to extend Friday’s +1.0%.
- President Trump’s inauguration address had little net impact, with the contract having already pared an earlier climb to 6078.25 following the aforementioned WSJ report plus also a Bloomberg report pointing specifically at a desire to negotiate with China.
- The day’s moves continue the bull cycle extension, with next resistance seen at 6107.50 (Dec 26 high) after which lies 6163.75 (Dec 16 high). To the downside, support is seen at 5961.75 (Jan 16 low).
- Other e-mini indices have seen similar gains today, with both Nasdaq 100 and Down Jones +0.4%, although the Russell 2000 outperforms (+1.2%) having heavily underperformed Friday.
- Improved risk sentiment has been reflected more broadly as well, including in Europe the SX5E index marking a fresh twenty-year high.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
