US TSY FUTURES: Full range Of Positioning Swings During Thursday's Twisting
Aug-01 10:38
OI data points to a variety of positioning adjustments on Thursday:
- Net short setting in TU.
- Net long cover in FV.
- Net short cover in TY, US & WN.
- Net long setting in UXY.
- The net short cover across TY, US & WN futures provided the most meaningful DV01 equivalent adjustment.
| 31-Jul-25 | 30-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,532,570 | 4,451,292 | +81,278 | +2,983,872 |
FV | 6,959,364 | 6,975,185 | -15,821 | -671,682 |
TY | 4,931,325 | 4,953,659 | -22,334 | -1,459,321 |
UXY | 2,425,392 | 2,424,893 | +499 | +43,166 |
US | 1,740,124 | 1,765,130 | -25,006 | -3,436,179 |
WN | 1,949,093 | 1,953,917 | -4,824 | -861,072 |
|
| Total | +13,792 | -3,401,215 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Its Recent Lows
Jul-02 10:33
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
GILTS: Steepening Extends Post-Taylor
Jul-02 10:31
The early curve steepening theme extends after BoE MPC member Taylor’s dovish comments, with 2 year-yields -2bp in the time since, pushing 2s10s back above 65bp, last ~3bp steeper on the day.
- Initial upside interest in the spread located at the June closing high (66.97bp), with the year-to-date closing high (78.54bp) still some distance away.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: June ADP Employment, Challenger Job Cuts
Jul-02 10:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/02 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
- 07/02 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (47.0%, --)
- 07/02 0815 ADP Employment Change (37k, 98k)
- 07/02 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
