US: Freedom Caucus Still "Long Ways Away" On Megabill Following Trump Address
May-20 14:52
Representative Andy Harris (R-MD), the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, told reporters "we’re still a long ways away" from an agreement with Republican leadership on the 'One Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill, following an address from US President Donald Trump.
- Harris said "he’s still a no", citing “waste, fraud and abuse” in Medicaid, per Punchbowl News. He added that he thinks "we can get there" but said, "maybe not by tomorrow,” which is when House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has teed up a key procedural vote in the House Rules Committee.
- Erik Wasson at Bloomberg reports similarly that Trump, "didn’t change [Harris'] view" as the bill doesn’t cut spending enough. "He’s still a hard no!!"
- Trump singled out Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) as a "grandstander", saying he could never get his vote. Reminder: Johnson can likely only drop three votes in a final vote on the package.
- Trump also reportedly rebuked blue-state Republicans holding out for a higher cap on State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions. He told Rep Mike Lawler (R-NY): “I know your district better than you do, if you lose because of SALT you were going to lose anyway.”
- The White House has published a fact sheet with 20 reasons why Congress should get behind the bill here.
- The House Rules Committee is scheduled to gavel in at 01:00 ET 06:00 BST tomorrow morning. If the package is advanced out of the committee, a final vote is possible tomorrow. If the bill stalls in Rules, lawmakers are in for an extended session before being released by Johnson for recess.
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CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
Apr-19 13:51
- CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
- CARNEY SEES 2025-26 BUDGET DEFICIT OF CAD62.3B OR 2% OF GDP
- CARNEY PLANS TO REACH 2% NATO TARGET BEFORE 2030
- CARNEY SEES NEW CAD10B ANNUAL PLAN FOR GREEN TRANSITION BONDS
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
Apr-18 05:16
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
