UKRAINE: Foreign Min Cautious On Talks; Kremlin 'Impressed' By Trump Position
Feb-13 10:07
Speaking to France's Le Monde, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha says, in reaction to US President Donald Trump's announcement of talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine, that 'Nothing can be discussed on Ukraine without Ukraine or on Europe without Europe.' Sybiha: 'With Trump's leadership [and] strong European commitment we have a chance to give fresh impetus to this process'.
- Says that 'As far as Ukraine is aware, the Americans have not yet finalised their plan'. Following US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's comments on 12 Feb, Sybiha says 'NATO membership remains a strategic objective of Ukraine, all allies said its path was irreversible'.
- Claims that "There should be no compromises that harm the territorial integrity of sovereignty of Ukraine'.
Sybiha's comments come in the wake of a flurry of headlines hitting wires from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov.
- Peskov says that following the Trump-Putin call the Kremlin is focused on preparing for a meeting between the two leaders. Offered no indication on place or time for meeting (Saudi Arabia seen as most likely). On a Ukraine peace deal 'There is a political will on both sides to engage in dialogue and search for a settlement'. Peskov: 'The Biden administration tried to keep the war going but the Trump administration is trying to ensure peace.' Says that 'We are impressed by the Trump position'.
- Says that the issue of recognition of Crimea and other occupied territories 'was not raised' on the Trump-Putin call.
The topic of occupied territories will be a central one for Kyiv. Hegseth said on 12 Feb that a return to the pre-2014 borders is "an unrealistic objective."
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Historical bullets
EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 14/01/25
Jan-14 10:05
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg
- EUR001W 2.9260 0.0110
- EUR001M 2.8520 0.0020
- EUR003M 2.7610 -0.0240
- EUR006M 2.6850 0.0300
- EUR012M 2.6120 0.0360
FOREX: Recovery for Equities Weighs on Greenback, Cross/JPY Extends Bounce
Jan-14 10:05
- The USD was under pressure at the NY/Asia Pac cross over, as headlines crossed from Bloomberg that Trump economic advisers were considering/studying a gradual tariff hike approach. The more optimistic price action for equities has provided weakness for both the greenback and the Japanese Yen, with most recent reports of a potential Israel/Hamas ceasefire assisting this sentiment.
- As such, cross/JPY is extending its recovery, with the likes of EURJPY and AUDJPY rising half a percent on Tuesday to turn positive on the week despite Monday’s sharp initial selloff.
- The recent move down in EURJPY appears technically corrective, however the cross did breach support at 160.91, the Jan 2 low. The next support to watch is 159.51, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 164.90, the Dec 30 high. First resistance is at 162.43, the 20-day EMA.
- NZD outperformance stands out today, and appears to be driven by the positive signals from the Q4 NZIER Business Opinion Survey and its influence on OIS pricing, which is tempering expectations for RBNZ easing. To sum up, the survey showed that a net 16% of businesses expect the economy to improve, vs 1% expecting it to get worse in Q3.
- NZDUSD has risen back above 0.5600 and will look to the 20-day EMA as initial resistance, intersecting today at 0.5641. NZDJPY is one of the best performing crosses, currently up 0.80% on the session.
- GBP once again underperforms, with cable down 0.15% on the day and notably 70 pips off the overnight 1.2250 highs. EURGBP is currently testing the Monday highs of 0.8424 having recently undermined the recent bearish theme, suggesting scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The cross will now target 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, and 0.8494, the Aug 26 ’24 high.
- US PPI is the focus on the Tuesday economic calendar before UK and US CPI cross Wednesday. Fed speakers include Schmid and Williams.
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 1.25% Nov-54 linker
Jan-14 10:03
| 1.25% Nov-54 linker | Previous synd | |
| Amount | GBP1.00bln | GBP4.25bln |
| Avg yield | 2.126% | 1.569% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.06x | |
| Avg price | 80.714 | 92.388 |
| Pre-auction mid | 80.644 | |
| Previous date | 26-Nov-24 |
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