ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Keep Selling Asian Equities To Start The Year
Outflows in all regions on Tuesday with Taiwan continuing to decent selling following chips restrictions being announced from the US, however, while Nvidia has announced they will plan to build a headquarters in Taiwan. India has had the worst start to the year with 2.6b of outflows so far.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$148m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$287m. YTD flows are flat at $0. The 5-day average is -$57m, worse than the 20-day average of -$70m and the 100-day average of -$146m.
- Taiwan: Experienced outflows of -$352m yesterday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$3.87b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.57b. The 5-day average is -$773m, significantly worse than the 20-day average of -$188m and the 100-day average of -$126m.
- India: Posted outflows of -$495m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$2.06b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.62b. The 5-day average is -$411m, worse than the 20-day average of -$223m and the 100-day average of -$49m.
- Indonesia: Registered outflows of -$39m yesterday, with the 5-day total at -$94m. YTD flows are negative at -$244m. The 5-day average is -$19m, slightly better than the 20-day average of -$34m, but worse than the 100-day average of +$5m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$63m yesterday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$188m. YTD flows are negative at -$122m. The 5-day average is -$38m, worse than the 20-day average of -$11m and the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Malaysia: Posted outflows of -$55m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day total of -$203m. YTD flows are negative at -$261m. The 5-day average is -$41m, worse than the 20-day average of -$26m and the 100-day average of -$15m
- Philippines: Recorded outflows of -$15m yesterday, resulting in a 5-day total of -$38m. YTD flows are negative at -$52m. The 5-day average is -$8m, worse than the 20-day average of -$7m but equal to the 100-day average of $0m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
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MNI: MNI JAPAN OCT CORE MACHINE ORDERS +2.1% M/M; SEPT -0.7%
- MNI JAPAN OCT CORE MACHINE ORDERS +2.1% M/M; SEPT -0.7%
- JAPAN OCT MACHINE ORDERS POSTS 1ST M/M RISE IN 4 MONTHS
BONDS: ACGB Curve Steepens, Chalmers To Speak On RBA Board Shortly
Aussie bonds are trading slightly cheaper this morning, largely tracking moves made in us tsys on Friday. Today is the last day for trading for the dec 3, 5 & 10yr bond futures, while earlier we had S&P Global flash PMIs, which came in below the prior months readings.
- Tsys futures fell again on Friday, ending one of the worst weeks for the year, tsys initially mirroring weak action in Bunds and Gilts in the first half of the US session, there was little in the way of data out on Friday with investors looking to position ahead of this weeks FOMC decision. Cash tsys curves bear-steepened, with yield closing 5 to 7.5bps higher.
- S&P Global Mfg PMI fell to 48.2, from 49.4 prior, while Services PMI dropped to 50.4 from 50.5, composite fell back below 50, to 49.9.
- Shortly we have Jim Chalmers speaking on the new look RBA board, with two members being replace. This will occur in the next 20 or so minutes
- Cash ACGBs are currently trading 2-3bps cheaper, with the curve bear-steepening. The 2yr is +2bps at 3.913%, while the 10yr is +2.7bps at 4.314%. Bonds Futures are lower today, with YM -1.4 & XM at -2.9
- The AU-US 10yr spread fell 5bps on Friday to -8bps
- Swap curves have flattened are are trading flat to -3bps, while the bill strip is flat to -2.
- There is nothing else on the calendar today
JGB TECHS: (H5) Shallow Correction
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.44 @ 16:13 GMT Dec 13
- SUP 1: 141.88 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
JGB futures are trading above their recent lows and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.88 and 141.56, Fibonacci projection points on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
