UK DATA: Footfall Drops Further on June Heatwave, Remaining Subdued
BRC footfall (released overnight) fell further in June, decreasing 3.4% Y/Y, down from -2.6% in May. Record June heat and still subdued consumer confidence are highlighted as drivers by the BRC. The ONS's footfall series also showed Y/Y growth becoming more negative. Declines in footfall may not fully feed through to retail sales as, like in May, warmer temperatures could have boosted sales for some furniture/household appliance categories. Furthermore, Amazon Prime Day sales were held in June rather than July (as last year) which may have both contributed to the reduction in footfall but also potentially boosted retail sales.
- The BRC's press release highlights June's record heatwave keeping shoppers indoors: "High streets saw the sharpest declines, while air-conditioned shopping centres and retail parks proved more resilient. While London and the South East – where temperatures were highest – registered the biggest decline, other regions performed markedly better."
- "At the same time, consumer confidence is improving slightly but remains low, with wider uncertainty continuing to weigh on discretionary spend."
- By location, high street footfall fell 6.2% Y/Y in June (-1.5% May), shopping centres -2.5% Y/Y (-2.4% May), and retail parks -0.3% Y/Y (-1.5% May).
- Elsewhere, the ONS's footfall series showed a broadly consistent -0.9% Y/Y decline in June, down from -0.5% May. By location, retail parks fell 8.2% Y/Y after -8.7%, followed by town/city centres (-0.4% Y/Y after 0.0%), whereas district/local centres grew 0.5% Y/Y after 1.2%.
- The BRC will release June retail sales data next Tuesday (14 Jul), after May saw a decent rebound in Y/Y growth, helped by warm weather. Despite the latest hit to footfall, the heatwave may have continued to boost household appliance sales such as fans and air con units.
- Further ahead, ONS retail sales data is due Fri 24 Jul, which saw a stronger-than-expected monthly rebound in May. Here, household goods stores and non-store retailers reported strong sales, with retailers also suggesting the hot weather boosted sales of outdoor furniture and fans.
Both the BRC and ONS retail sales releases use the same reporting period as today's BRC footfall data (the five weeks 31 May - 5 July 2026).
Source: BRC, Sensormatic 
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SWEDEN: 3m/3m GDP Growth Back In Positive Territory, But Downside Risks Remain
Swedish GDP rose 0.5% M/M in April, after 1.5% in March. It brings 3m/3m growth back into positive territory at 0.4% (vs -0.2% prior), though as always a pinch of salt should be taken with the monthly data, which can be volatile and revision prone (March was revised down from 1.9% initial). The positive reading is consistent with yesterday’s Business Survey, which noted that while the war "does not seem to have significantly affected the current economic outlook it risks posing a new challenge to the recovery". Downside growth risks, a subdued labour market and low underlying inflation readings are keeping the Riksbank patient with respect to rate hikes for now.
- The April rise in GDP was driven by private sector production (+1.7% M/M), specifically industry (4.2% M/M vs -1.6% prior) and services (0.5% M/M vs 2.2% prior). Construction remains a laggard on a growth rate and levels basis. On a 3m/3m basis, private sector production was 0.1% (vs -0.6% prior) in April.
- Household consumption fell 0.8% M/M in April. However, Statistics Sweden now publishes consumption data at a higher – and less lagged – frequency. May consumption rose 0.7% m/m, meaning 3m/3m growth was 0.7% in May and 0.6% in April.
GILTS: Yields Little Changed, Futures Recoup Late Downtick
Gilts rally at the open with crude lower through Asia hours.
- Markets seem relatively relaxed when it comes to the latest rounds of fire between the U.S. & Iran, which have already ceased, with both sides pointing to the retaliatory nature of their attacks.
- Gilt futures +4 at 87.78, staying below yesterday’s high.
- Initial support and resistance located at 87.28 and 88.65, respectively. A short-term bullish pattern remains intact within a longer run bearish theme.
- Yields little changed across the curve, 10s have retethered to 4.90%. Bulls have been unable to force a meaningful break below 4.80% in recent times, while bears haven’t managed to retest 5.00% during the rebound in yields.
- The potential for further fiscal tightening (under the current Labour leadership) has come to the fore in the local press after The Times reported that Chancellor Reeves has “warned that the government will have to consider further tax rises to help fund defence in future because “borrowing can’t be the only answer”.” The Times notes that this “raises the prospect of further tax rises in the autumn budget”, contingent on PM Starmer & Reeves remaining in the current posts (which assumes Starmer can withstand any leadership challenge that is launched between now and then).
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on spillover from energy price swings and the U.S. CPI release.
ECB: MNI ECB Preview: The Start Of A Measured Adjustment
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI ECB Preview, found here: https://media.marketnews.com/ECB_Preview_Jun2026_01dfde3528.pdf
- See the report for MNI analysis including July hike prospects and the market set-up
- A latest summary of 27 analyst views in a fast moving environment
- Expectations for fresh economic projections to be announced with the decision
- A detailed review of pertinent ECBspeak
- Key macro developments since the last ECB meeting
