US DATA: FOMC Will Have PCE Data Through January By Its March Meeting
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has announced updated release dates for delayed data:
- The Q4 GDP / 2025 second estimate will be published March 13 (was originally scheduled for Feb 26); with the third estimate out April 9 (originally scheduled for March 27). These will follow the advance estimate for the quarter on February 20.
- The BEA has also scheduled the Personal Income and Outlays reports (with PCE readings) for January and February, on March 13/April 9 respectively. These were originally due out Feb 26 / Mar 27. The December data is scheduled for February 20.
- This means that the Federal Reserve will have PCE data through January as well as a 2nd reading of GDP by the time of its March decision (Mar 16). That's no less than it would have had absent the shutdown-related delays, a sign that the statistics agencies are catching up with the long backlog.
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USDJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 154.82 @ 16:23 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 154.40 Low Dec 16
- SUP 2: 154.00 50-day EMA and a key support area
- SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29
Despite the latest pullback, the trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 appears to have been a correction and the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. However, support at 154.00, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 158.00.
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform On UK PMIs, Wage Growth
EGB yields dipped Tuesday amid mixed global labor market and activity data, but Gilts weakened.
- Slightly weaker-than-expected Eurozone December flash PMIs had little impact on core EGBs. In the UK however Gilts were kept on the back foot amid a firm PMI print and labour market data that showed higher-than-expected earnings growth.
- The delayed US nonfarm payrolls report was initially seen as weak due to a sizeable unemployment rate rise, but the move fully reversed in part due to strong US retail sales alongside, and saw Gilts and Bunds yields hit session highs.
- Yields were content to come off of the lows into the cash close, ahead of Wednesday's UK CPI release and Thursday's ECB / BoE decisions.
- On the day, the German curve bull steepened slightly, with the UK's bear steepening. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads fell modestly.
- Aside from UK CPI (MNI's preview here), German IFO and Eurozone final November inflation data feature Wednesday.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.6bps at 2.134%, 5-Yr is down 1.7bps at 2.452%, 10-Yr is down 0.8bps at 2.845%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 3.466%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 3.766%, 5-Yr is up 1.3bps at 3.96%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 4.518%, and 30-Yr is up 1.9bps at 5.258%.
- Spanish bond spread down 1.2bps at 43.6bps / French OAT down 0.4bps at 70.5bps
EURGBP TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
- RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 0.8796 @ 16:22 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 0.8755/21 50-day EMA / Low Dec 9
- SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support
The current upleg in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase between Nov 14 - Dec 9. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.
