ASIA STOCKS: Flows Turn Positive into Tech Heavy Markets

The EUR/USD range overnight was 1.1409-1.1445, Asia is currently trading around 1.1440. The pair is looking to consolidate its gains made toward the end of last week. The USD pulled back sharply as the market walked back immediate rate hike expectations. Risk has struggled in Asia today, unable to follow through on a solid overnight session and stellar Samsung earnings. On the day, I am watching to see how far this bounce can extend. The 1.1400-1.1900 range which had held going back well over a year looked to have been potentially broken, this bounce will be challenging the conviction of those that played that break. I remain skewed in favour of fading rallies with big resistance back towards the 1.1475-1.1525 area initially looking for the pair to turn lower again at some point. Until then it looks like we could do some work between 1.1400-1.1500.    

• WSJ, via BBG: “China Is Devastating the Last Stronghold of German Industry.”  https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/THMO80PV4WE9
• “Germany will boost defense and security spending to more than €200 billion by the end of the decade, amounting to a third of the federal budget — and on track to meet a NATO target. Including military aid for Ukraine, defense spending will exceed €150 billion next year.” - BBG
• CFTC Data up to 30/06/26 shows the Leveraged community continuing to aggressively add back their shorts, -83 016(Last –67 504). Asset managers maintained their reduced core longs, +284 912(Last +283 628). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1350(EU1.49b), 1.1500(EU2.08b). Upcoming Close Strikes :  1.1300(EU1.63b July 10), 1.1400(EU1.23b July 8 ), 1.1500(EU1.33b July 8 ). - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 50 Points

Fig 1 : EUR CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

*JAPAN 30Y GOVT BOND AUCTION MAY HAVE 99.75 LOWEST PRICE:POLL - BLOOMBERG

The BSP commented on the June CPI results stating that it is prepared to tighten further given broadening price pressures.

"*PHILIPPINE CENTRAL BANK MAKES COMMENTS AFTER JUNE CPI DATA" - BBG
"*PHILIPPINES BSP PREPARED TO TAKE FURTHER MONETARY ACTION"
"*BSP: PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO ENSURE CPI RETURNS TO 3% TARGET"
"*BSP: RISING CORE CPI INDICATES BROADENING PRICE PRESSURES"
"*BSP: TO BE GUIDED BY INCOMING DATA" 
"*PHILIPPINES' BSP: INFLATION TO REMAIN ABOVE GOAL IN 2026, 2027"
"*PHILIPPINES' BSP: CONTINUES TO MONITOR OIL MARKET"