SWEDEN: Flash CPIF ex-energy In Line With Riksbank Projection; No Policy Signal
Oct-08 06:07
No real reaction in SEK to the September flash CPIF ex-energy inflation reading. Note that CPIF ex-energy at 2.70% Y/Y was in line with the Riksbank’s September MPR projection, but a touch below consensus (2.69% Riksbank, 2.8% cons, 2.92% prior).
- Riksbank likely remains on hold at 1.75% going forward, this flash print doesn’t change that outlook.
- Headline CPIF inflation was 3.09% Y/Y (vs 3.04% Riksbank, 3.25% prior).
- Full CPI details released next Wednesday.
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MNI: GERMANY JUL EXPORTS -0.6% M/M; IMPORTS -0.1% M/M
Sep-08 06:00
- MNI: GERMANY JUL EXPORTS -0.6% M/M; IMPORTS -0.1% M/M
- GERMANY JUL TRADE BALANCE EUR +14.7 BLN
MNI: GERMANY JUL IND PROD +1.3% M/M
Sep-08 06:00
- MNI: GERMANY JUL IND PROD +1.3% M/M
UK DATA: KPMG-REC Report on Jobs: Steepest Increase in Candidates Since Nov'20
Sep-08 05:55
- The KPMG-REC Report on Jobs showed further labour market softening - the most notable of which was the "steepest upturn in candidate availability since November 2020." The report notes that this was driven by vacancies falling "sharply" again alongside redundancies. The availability of staff index has now moved above 70.
- The Report has been flagging that starting salaries have been increasing at below average rates for some time. For permanent employees the increase was the report notes it is the weakest in 4.5 years.
- The only minor positive in the report was that both permanent and temporary placements declined at a slower pace than in either June or July, but even so there was continued decline and at similar levels to in May.
- We know for Deputy Governor Ramsden it has been his primary concern for some time, while Governor Bailey noted that he put more emphasis on the downside risk of pay growth in his August cut decision (after it undershot the Bank's May MPR forecast). So this report is likely to make both of these members more likely to vote for further cuts - and we think that both members would be required to keep continuing quarterly cuts on the table.
- All in all, we conclude that the probability of a November 25bp cut is increased a little by this report and it follows the DMP survey last week to be another downbeat labour result. But that we still need to see continued deterioration in the official labour market statistics and other labour surveys ahead of the November decision (including Agents' survey). And importantly, any earlier indications regarding pay settlements for 2026 will be key to the decision, too.
