Eutelsat SA IDR and SUN rating to BB[N] from BB+[N] on slow OneWeb growth and negative EBITDA, high LEO CapEx likely needed external funding and looming refinancing from 2027. No mention of dynamics around Ukraine, the Italian contract or a shift away from Starlink elsewhere in Europe.
- Eutelsat Communications ratings also downgraded.
- EUR 2bn-2.2bn OneWeb funding (2025-2029); EUR 4.2bn required until 2032. High CapEx to push FCF to negative.
- OneWeb has only managed to grow backlog by EUR 300mn to EUR 1bn in 2024, corresponding to only a fraction of the revs needed for positive EBITDA.
- GEO services face structural challenges with video segment hit by linear TV decline and non-video segments suffering from LEO adoption.
- LEO competition growing; Starlink, Kuiper, Telesat and Chinese constellations.
- Differences with the SES approach could become less pronounced over time with both participating in IRIS2.