SECURITY: Fifth Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Set For May 23 - Oman FM

May-21 16:31

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi has announced on X that the fifth round of US-Iran nuclear talks will take place in Rome, Italy, on Friday, May 23. 

  • The talks come as US and Iranian officials clash over Iran’s ability to continue enriching uranium for civilian nuclear purposes. Senior Iranian officials, including Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have asserted their right to retain the enrichment programme within the parameters of a new deal.
  • The US side - initially open to the idea - appears to have pivoted to a more hardline position on enrichment following pressure from Iran hawks within the Trump administration and Congress.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghachi said a short time ago - before Albusaidi's announcement: “Enrichment in Iran will continue; with or without agreement. We are considering whether or when to participate in the next round of negotiations. We are still examining whether fruitful negotiations can take place on that date and at that location,” per Laura Rozen at Diplomatic.
  • Gregory Brew at the Eurasia Group noted earlier that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was “careful not to say explicitly that a deal hinges on zero enrichment” during testimony to US Congressional panels this week.
  • Brew adds that US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said “enrichment was a "red-line." [but] Iranians claim he is saying something different during talks.”

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLCK: Jun'25 5Y Buy

Apr-21 16:01
  • +6,500 FVM5 108-16.25, buy through 108-15.75 post time offer at 1148:59ET, DV01 $267,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-15.75 last (+2.5)

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5B Amex 4Pt Launched

Apr-21 15:57

Amex dropped the 6NC5 SOFR leg:

  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 04/21 $5B #American Express $1.6B 4NC3 +98, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+126, $1.5B 6NC5 +108, $1.5B 11NC10 +128
  • 04/21 $700M Excelerate Energy 5NC2
  • 04/21 $2B QXO Inc. 7NC3 investor calls

FED: Citi: 125bp Cuts This Year, But Next One Pushed Back From May To June

Apr-21 15:42

Citi has pushed back its expectation for the next Fed rate cut to June, from May previously, as Fed officials "have guided against a May cut" amid government policy uncertainty.

  • They still expect 125bp of cuts this year, however, which is more than the just-under-100bp currently priced by Fed funds futures. Citi: "we expect a range of data to have pushed Fed officials more dovish by June. That would include weaker "soft" data (including PMI this week) and signs that the labor market is loosening with the unemployment rate rising in the next few jobs reports."
  • Citi shifted its 2025 view to 125bp of cuts immediately after the April 2 tariff announcements, from 75bp  - in both cases they had seen the next cut in May.
  • They note "risks are skewed to faster and/or deeper rate cuts" given that getting rates to around 3%, while close to where the FOMC sees longer-run neutral, is not "appropriately stimulative should financial conditions continue to tighten and the economy move closer to recession".
  • MNI is not aware of any analysts still expecting a cut at the May FOMC at this stage (decision announced May 7), with futures-implied pricing of a 25bp reduction at around 15%.