SECURITY: Fifth Round Of US-Iran Nuclear Talks Set For May 23 - Oman FM

• +6,500 FVM5 108-16.25, buy through 108-15.75 post time offer at 1148:59ET, DV01 $267,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-15.75 last (+2.5)

Amex dropped the 6NC5 SOFR leg:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/21 $5B #American Express $1.6B 4NC3 +98, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+126, $1.5B 6NC5 +108, $1.5B 11NC10 +128
• 04/21 $700M Excelerate Energy 5NC2
• 04/21 $2B QXO Inc. 7NC3 investor calls

Citi has pushed back its expectation for the next Fed rate cut to June, from May previously, as Fed officials "have guided against a May cut" amid government policy uncertainty.

• They still expect 125bp of cuts this year, however, which is more than the just-under-100bp currently priced by Fed funds futures. Citi: "we expect a range of data to have pushed Fed officials more dovish by June. That would include weaker "soft" data (including PMI this week) and signs that the labor market is loosening with the unemployment rate rising in the next few jobs reports."
• Citi shifted its 2025 view to 125bp of cuts immediately after the April 2 tariff announcements, from 75bp  - in both cases they had seen the next cut in May.
• They note "risks are skewed to faster and/or deeper rate cuts" given that getting rates to around 3%, while close to where the FOMC sees longer-run neutral, is not "appropriately stimulative should financial conditions continue to tighten and the economy move closer to recession".
• MNI is not aware of any analysts still expecting a cut at the May FOMC at this stage (decision announced May 7), with futures-implied pricing of a 25bp reduction at around 15%.