EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: bookbuilding update
Jul-10 10:24
FEDBH; B3/B+/NR) books over 1bn - mkt source IPT @ 6.00% area FV @ 5.50% area Link to our earlier...
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US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview: An Important Pre-FOMC Steer
Jun-10 10:23
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US CPI Preview.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis plus detailed analyst estimates, here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Jun2025_a86717a017.pdf
- Analyst unrounded estimates see core CPI inflation accelerating mildly to 0.27% M/M (median, 0.28% average) in May after 0.24% M/M in April.
- We’ve seen an unrounded range of 0.23-0.34% M/M, with some sizeable discrepancies in used cars and lodging away from home as well as a CPI-specific airfares.
- The broad assumption is that May could have started to see a greater tariff impact than April but that firmer increases are more likely to show in summer months.
- Both headline and core CPI Y/Y inflation should firm one to two tenths after lows since early 2021, whilst the six-month core rate should see a similar print after four months running hotter than the Y/Y.
- We have seen preliminary core PCE estimates center on 0.22% M/M for May (median, 0.24% average), due the usual updates after Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI. One area to watch in the latter will the extent of a bounce in portfolio management and investment advice after sliding with equities in April.
- The Fed rate path is close to its most hawkish since February, with a next cut fully priced for October.
- A dovish surprise could see a more limited reaction on the assumption that strength is yet to come for consumer prices, unless it’s seen across some of the less volatile services components. On the flipside, an upside surprise can see a further kicking out of rate cut expectations and could tee up a hawkish Fed SEP.
GILT SYNDICATION: New 1.75% Sep-38 I/L gilt: Allocations
Jun-10 10:10
- Spread set earlier: 1.125% Nov-37 I/L gilt +11.75bp (guidance was +11.75/+12.25bps)
- Size: GBP5.5bln (MNI expect GBP3.5-5.0bln nominal )
- Books closed in excess of GBP61bln (inc JLM interest of GBP5.5bln)
- Hedge ratio 55% vs 1.125% Nov-37 I/L gilt
- Maturity: 22-Sep-38
- Exp. Settlement: 11-Jun-25 (T+1)
- Coupon: 1.75% SA, ACT/ACT, short first to 22-Sep-25
- ISIN: GB00BMY62Z61
- Joint Leads: Barclays (B&D/DM), Citi, Nomura, RBC
- Timing: Hedge deadline 11:30BST. Pricing to follow.
From market source / MNI colour
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact
Jun-10 10:04
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A continuation would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5798.36, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5205.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
