STIR: Fed Rate Path A Touch Softer But 2026 Hike Still Fully Priced
Jun-09 11:01
- US rates are slightly firmer overnight as they sit back towards yesterday's highs. Gains are helped by crude oil declines although with rates only back to yesterday’s more dovish levels vs crude easily through those lows.
- A 25bp hike remains fully priced for the Dec FOMC and whilst data picks up slightly today, attention on that front is firmly on tomorrow’s CPI report. A jump in NFIB price plans added support to this backdrop although didn't have an impact on market pricing.
- MNI US CPI Preview: https://mni.marketnews.com/4unpjNy
- FF cumulative hikes from 3.62% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 4bp Jul, 12bp Sep, 16.5bp Oct, 26.5bp Dec, building to 38.5bp Mar 2027 and 42.5bp Jun 2027.
- SOFR futures up to 2 ticks firmer on the day in the M7, with the implied peak yield of 4.075% (M7, -2bp) holding close to Friday’s post-NFP fresh highest close for the Middle East conflict of 4.105%.
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