US TSYS: Fed Chair Warsh Strikes a Hawkish Tone at Jackson Hole Summit

Aug-28 19:16

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* Treasuries look to finish weaker - trading sideways , near lows since midday. Jackson Hole econo...

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FED: Warsh Comments Further on the Move Higher in Yields

Jul-29 19:15
  • Warsh continues to suggest that the move higher in yields helped inform the decision to hold rates rather than hike at this meeting: "If you look broadly at market prices, they are certainly not saying all clear, but they are working in concert to to keep us on our toes, and they have tightened financial conditions in this intermeeting period, and that has provided us some comfort that that we've got the ability and capability to deliver."
  • On whether markets 100% pricing a September hike would feed into their thinking: "we're not going to be constrained by market prices. We're not going to be constrained or take verbatim from what the market's doing. But I think it's useful and understand that markets can be a very good source of information, not a determinative source, not a perfect source, but if we're trying to land the plane and deliver 2% inflation, and we take a very useful source of information and we get it all fogged up by giving it our own forecast by providing rolling commentary, I can assure you that we're going to have less information, less ability to land the plane successfully and deliver price stability. We're just trying to make sure that that source of information is as direct and unfiltered as possible. It isn't to the exclusion of data sources and opinions and other surveys, but if you're hearing from me, we wanted to make sure we were getting a better source of information."

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'26 10Y Ultra Buy

Jul-29 19:13
  • +5,680 UXYU6 110-25, buy through 110-24 post time offer at 1503:44ET, DV01 $488,400.

FED: Warsh on the Fed's Inflation Target

Jul-29 19:09
  • Warsh says in terms of the Fed's inflation target, 2% PCE is "our number. We're sticking with it." But "who knows? Come after next January, what we might say about strategy. I suspect the task force might might have something to add."
    • "If you would hear a message from me, yes, I care about what the PCE prints are. I care about what the contributions are from CPI and everything else, but my my lens is broader than that, even though the remit is quite narrow."
  • Once again, Warsh opines on market measures. "If I look at the Treasury curve, if I look at the dollar, if I look at a lot of things that are internals inside of financial markets, I think what they're broadly saying is that this committee does own it, has the credibility to deliver it, and they believe, like I do, that we will."