BUNDS: Falling through fresh Lows

• RES 4: 6124.00 High Feb 24     
• RES 3: 6080.75 High Feb 26  
• RES 2: 6057.00 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 6008.00 High May 29 
• PRICE: 5895.00 @ 14:14 BST Jun 2  
• SUP 1: 5825.39/5749.04 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Last Thursday’s initial gains delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 6000.00 has been pierced, an extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5742.22, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.

SFRM5 96.00c (x2), with 96.31c (x3), bought as a strip for 1.75 in 4.5k.

The ISM Manufacturing index is expected to tick up slightly in May but remain in contractionary territory, with BBG consensus for a 49.5 reading in Monday's report (from 48.7 in April). Prices paid are expected to ebb modestly, to 69.3 from 69.8, though that looks slightly low vs regional Fed findings.

• These expectations look roughly in line with the dynamics seen in related survey indicators for the month, with the average of 5 Fed manufacturing surveys (NY, Philly, KC, Dallas, Richmond) retracing most but not all of the April drop, and remaining weak on a historic basis.
• However, survey dates were mixed, with May deterioration seen before the May 12 US-China trade climbdown (ie NY Fed deteriorated but the survey dates were May 2-9, vs Philly which went to May 12).
• Manufacturing Flash PMIs saw a solid 52.3 (final coming today just before ISM). The Chicago Business Barometer fell 4.1 points in May but based on the national ISM weights inched up 0.3 points to 46.6.
• The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)'s barometer of manufacturing activity saw a sharp pullback, to -21.1 in May from -6 prior.
• The regional Fed surveys were mixed on current prices paid (Empire and Philly sharply higher, KC and Dallas lower, Richmond steady). Empire is the odd one out here due to the early May survey dates as noted, though the contrast with Philly prices paid (higher) and activity (also higher) suggests potential for a steady/higher ISM prices reading.
• MNI Chicago PMI's prices paid ticked down 1.5 points to 76.5.