PHILIPPINES: Exports Jump as Imports Fall

ANZ business confidence fell to 49.3 in April from 57.5, the lowest level since July 2024, the month before the start of the RBNZ’s easing cycle. The activity outlook moderated to 47.7 from 48.6, which remains above February’s 45.1. On a more positive note, the assessment of activity compared to a year ago rose 10 points to 11 driven by services and signalling a strong start to Q2 for GDP growth. Price/cost components trended higher over Q1 but were mixed in April but inflation expectations were stable around 2.6%.

NZ ANZ business activity outlook vs employment intentions

Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG

• It is likely that the survey was impacted by US tariff announcements, as ANZ noted that “forward-looking activity indicators were sharply lower in the late-month responses”. Export intentions fell 5 points to 12.2 with manufacturing down 7.6 points, while investment intentions were steady around 17.2.
• Employment compared to a year ago rose to +1.5 from -6.2 with services, construction and agriculture showing more jobs, while employment intentions rose 2.5 points to 18.1, the highest since July 21. This is in line with filled jobs and vacancy data showing a turn in the labour market. Wages expectations a year ahead rose over a point to 81.3.
• Cost expectations 3 months ahead rose to 77.9 from 74.1, highest since September 2023, while pricing intentions moderated almost 2 points to 49.4, signalling some margin squeeze. Profit expectations fell 1 point. 

NZ ANZ business survey costs/prices

• As anticipated following the release of the EPMI Index, China’s official PMI manufacturing slipped into contraction in April.
• Following March’s result of +50.5 April fell to +49.0, below expectations of +49.7.
• The Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to +50.4 from +50.8 last month
• These are the first PMI readings since the trade war kicked off with the imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to the US and as shipments to the US crater the official forecast of 5% growth now looks challenging.
• Authorities have announced measures to support exporters with access to loans and continues to seek ways of boosting the domestic economy.
• However today’s result seems likely a taste of things to come as the trade war impacts not just China corporates, but the region as a whole. 

Australian Q1 CPI and the March monthly print were above forecasts, more details to follow. The AUD/USD has risen post the print, last tracking above 0.6400, were were sub 0.6390 prior to the print. Tuesday highs at 0.6450 will be an upside target. On the bond side, futures are ym -4 xm -2, while OIS is 1-8bps higher across RBA meeting dates.