OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug13 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Aug-12 16:27
* EUR/USD: $1.1415(E1.0bln), $1.1500(E1.3bln), $1.1515-20(E1.8bln), $1.1550-60(E2.6bln), $1.1575(E...
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'26 5Y vs. 30Y Ultra-Bond Curve Flattener
Jul-13 16:13
- Curve flattener posted at 1159:48ET:
- -6,981 FVU6 106-12.75, sell through 106-13 post time bid, DV01 $297,000 vs.
- +1,766 WNU6 at 113-00,buy through 112-28 post time offer 112-28, DV01 $302,000
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Aug26 2Y Call Buyer
Jul-13 15:45
19,500 TUQ6 103 calls, 4.5 ref 102-27.75
FRANCE: Latest Elabe Poll Shows Le Pen Winning In Each Run-Off Scenario
Jul-13 15:40
Latest opinion polling shows, like others conducted after the appeals court ruling last week, the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN)'s Marine Le Pen sitting as the frontrunner to win the presidency in 2027. The Elabe poll, conducted 9-10 July, shows Le Pen as a certainty to make a second-round run-off, and likely defeat each of her most likely challengers.
- The identity of Le Pen's run-off opponent remains dependent on who runs in the first round:
- The poll shows former PM Edouard Philippe from the centre-right Horizons making the run-off when he is the sole candidate from the Macronist Ensemble bloc, whether MEP Raphael Glucksmann or former President Francois Hollande runs for the centre-left.
- Former PM Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) makes the run-off if he is the sole Ensemble candidate and the centre-left opts for Hollande as its candidate.
- Far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed, LFI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes the run-off if both Philippe and Attal run, or if Attal and Glucksmann run.
- It should be noted that, apart from the scenario of Philippe and Hollande running, each of the potential opponents for Le Pen sits within the margin of error.
- The Elabe poll shows the same as other pollsters in the hypothetical second-round contests: Le Pen defeating Mélenchon comfortably, but Attal and Philippe by narrower margins.
- The Philippe camp is already looking to define its battle against Le Pen on the economy. Politico reports pro-Philippe lawmakers looking to highlight Le Pen's more left-leaning economic stances on pension reform and debt reduction as they look to avoid conservative support swinging to the far right.
Chart 1. First Round Opinion Polling by Scenario, % (LHS) and Second Round Hypothetical Polling, % (RHS)
