RUSSIA: Experts Downplay Chances of Full Mobilisation in Russia on May 9
May-05 05:57
LOCAL NEWS
- Russian expert Dmitri Alperovitch says he does not believe Putin will enact full mobilisation on May 9 – nothing that he can already sell three key points that can be construed as ‘victory’ due to extensive state propaganda.
- 1) demilitarised Ukraine by destroying a lot of equipment & military infrastructure 2) denazified it by defeating the Azov battalion in Mariupol 3) protected his people in Donbas & Crimea by enlarging their territory and creating a land bridge.
- Notes that declaring victory would not mean an end to the fighting, but Russia could switch to defensive tactics to defend gains - Twitter
- Analyst says attempts to remove Putin internally are increasingly likely due to tensions within his intelligence community. Says discontent has been building since Putin started blaming his security services for Russia’s heavy casualties.
- Security expert Andrei Soldatov says Putin may also have been preparing for a coup for some time now after purging over 150 of his own intelligence agency over constant failures – reflecting a degree of paranoia over a potential coup – Sky
- Overnight, missile fire targeted Cherkasy, Dnipro & Zaporizhzhia with Russia continuing to focus on key transport/military infrastructure and radio/TV stations.
- Ukraine resumed calls for international assistance appealing to the UN for assistance in evacuating the Azovstal steel plant, and calling for NATO-standard heavy weapons to be delivered directly to Ukraine instead of older weapons sent from Poland. – Sky
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RUSSIA: Analysts Wary That Donetsk Assault May See a More Protracted Phase of the Conflict
Apr-05 05:56
- Ceasefire talks have yielded little additional progress thus far, with some analysts arguing that Russia is playing for time as it reorients its troops with a focus on taking the separatist republics to boost its negotiating position.
- Donetsk is where some of the most experienced Ukrainian troops are dug in and will be a hard fought area with warmer weather ahead likely to make passage for heavy artillery/tanks extremely challenging for Russia and may mark a more protracted phase of the conflict.
RUSSIA: US Halts Debt Repayments to Banks; Ukrainian Military Warns of Renewed Assault in Donetsk
Apr-05 05:52
LOCAL NEWS
- Zelensky will address the UNSC today following accusations of war crimes lodged against Putin and Russia for the atrocities in Bucha. Ukrainian military intelligence warns that Russian troops are readying for an attack on the remaining territory of Donetsk with the goal of fully occupying the separatist republics.
- Meanwhile, reports suggest Russia has nominated its own mayor of Mariupol, despite the ongoing battle for the city. Russia said Ukrainian troops may leave the city as long as they lay down their arms – RTRS, bbg, Tass
- On ceasefire talks, Lavrov said it is too soon to say how increased realism from Ukraine might turn into an actual agreement, but talks are continuing. Lavrov said the West’s failure to engage with Russia in serious dialogue is not in anyone’s interest.
- Russia has also conscripted an additional 130k troops for the conflict in Ukraine. Two thirds of the troops surrounding Kyiv have moved back to Belarus to be repositioned – RTRS, Sky
- US stops Russian bond payments on over $600m in a bid to raise pressure on Moscow. The US Treasury had been allowing Russia to use reserves held at US banks to pay its coupons until yesterday. A $552.4m principal and $84m coupon were due yesterday.
- US spox said Russia must now choose between default or draining its valuable remaining reserves with the 30-day grace period having been triggered. Russia has 15 international bonds outstanding worth $40bn - RTRS
- Western Officials warn that Russia will likely face a worse recession than in 1998 with GDP growth set to decline -7-12% in 2022. This comes as Western nations say there’s always more that can be done RE sanctions following scenes of human rights abuses in Bucha – Sky
Data:
- 0700BST: S&P Services PMI exp at 46.0 vs 52.1 prior
- 0700BST: S&P Composite PMI exp at 42.0 vs 50.8 prior
AUDUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend
Apr-05 05:51
- RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16 2021
- RES 3: 0.7653 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17 2021
- RES 1: 0.7617/27 High Jun 25 / 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- PRICE: 0.7613 @ 06:50 BST Apr 5
- SUP 1: 0.7536 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.7457 Low Mar 29 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.7426/7376 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
- SUP 4: 0.7329 50-day EMA
AUDUSD is trading higher today and has confirmed a resumption of its uptrend. The break higher confirms a bull flag breakout and price has also cleared resistance at 0.7556, the Oct 28 2021 high. The Aussie has also traded thriugh the Jul 6 2021 high of 0.7599 and probed 0.7610, 61.8% of the Feb ‘21 - Jan ‘22 downleg. The next objective is 0.7645, the Jun 17 2021 high. Key support has been defined at 0.7457, the Mar 29 low.
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