EUR: EURUSD Consolidation Phase, EURGBP Continues Sequence of Lower Lows
Jul-10 09:12
- Alongside the contained price action for the dollar overall, EURUSD has had an extremely slow week trading within a 70pip range. While a short-term corrective cycle is in play, and there have been technical threats of a stronger recovery, a bearish trend condition remains intact overall. The bear trigger is 1.1325, the June 24 low, and clearance of it would mark a resumption of the downtrend.
- The bearish narrative is bolstered by some notable weakness in the crosses in recent sessions. We have flagged the recent medium-term breakdown for EURGBP through 0.8610, and a lower low in every session this week underscores the bearish momentum. The cross continues to edge closer to a prior low at 0.8508 and the base of the bear channel, just below the 0.85 handle.
- In similar vein, EURNZD has sparked some attention after falling 1.5% from the week’s high to a one-month low below 1.98.
- The economic calendar is void of any tier-one data releases in the Eurozone next week, although final inflation readings are scheduled Friday. This means broader global themes tied to the renewed conflict in the Middle East are likely to dominate, while notable levels of option expiries around the 1.14 handle for EURUSD will continue to be monitored.
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FOREX: US Dollar Consolidates Ahead of US Inflation Data
Jun-10 09:09
- G10 FX has exhibited tight ranges overnight as the market continues to digest the back and forth in the Middle East and awaits May inflation data from the US. The DXY is consolidating around the 99.90 mark and continues to hold the bulk of its post-NFP advance. This keeps a short-term bullish theme intact as we approach the week’s key US release, and the DXY focus will remain on the year’s best levels just above the 100.50.
- While a 20-pip session range for USDJPY is nothing to get excited about, the pair continues to trade just below 160.50 which should provide further discomfort for Japanese officials. Finance Minister Katayama has stated there remains no change in the stance of being ready to take bold FX action. A test above the pre-intervention high of 160.72 will likely stoke additional volatility in the pair.
- The current uptrend in USDCAD remains intact ahead of today’s BOC decision where markets and analysts expect the Bank to maintain its overnight rate for a 5th consecutive decision at 2.25%. Attention remains on key resistance at 1.3967, the Mar 31 high. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 1.4015, the Dec 2 2025 high.
- The stronger than expected CPI-ATE inflation reading in Norway has assisted a small bid for the Norwegian krona, with NOKSEK rising 0.35% back towards parity. While price action has helped EURNOK edge off a fresh recovery high of 11.0065 this morning, recent technical breaches keep a short-term bullish theme firmly intact.
- EURCHF notably extends its short-term upwards momentum Wednesday, narrowing in on the cluster of highs between 0.9250-65. Bullish price action comes ahead of key catalysts over the next week including the Swiss vote on a population cap and the SNB meeting.
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12-month BOTs
Jun-10 09:03
| Type | 12-month BOT |
| Maturity | Jun 14, 2027 |
| Amount | E8.5bln |
| Target | E8.5bln |
| Previous | E8.5bln |
| Avg yield | 2.695% |
| Previous | 2.699% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.43x |
| Previous | 1.44x |
| Previous date | May 12, 2026 |
COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Pullback Below 200-DMA, 14-Day RSI Oversold
Jun-10 09:01
WTI futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The trend condition remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A key area of support to watch is $90.50, the 50-day EMA. The contract has traded through it, a clear breach would highlight a top and the start of a stronger correction. This would open $77.22, the Apr 17 low. Key resistance has been defined at $105.21, the May 18 high. First resistance is $97.00, the Jun 3 high. A bear theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces the downtrend. The metal has pierced the $4200.0 handle and a continuation lower would signal scope for a move towards the key medium-term support at $4099.2, the Mar 23 low. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial resistance is seen at $4478.1, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.4 or -0.45% at $87.8
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.45% at $3.153
- Gold spot down $92.13 or -2.16% at $4169.02
- Copper down $6.45 or -1.02% at $625.65
- Silver down $1.55 or -2.37% at $63.8196
- Platinum down $53.29 or -3.08% at $1675.21
